This is the third installment of project management using excel series.
Preparing & tracking a project plan using Gantt Charts
Team To Do Lists – Project Tracking Tools
Part 3: Project Status Reporting – Create a Timeline to display milestones
Time sheets and Resource management
Issue Trackers & Risk Management
Project Status Reporting – Dashboard
Bonus Post: Using Burn Down Charts to Understand Project Progress
Why Create Project Timeline Chart?
There are 2 key elements in all the successful projects I have been part of.
- They had exceptional individuals who are also exceptional team players
- The communication and collaboration is really good.
While there is little that project management software can do when it comes to first point, the second point can be addressed by using right tools and visualizations. In this installment and the part 5 and 6 of this series, we will learn some excel based visualizations / charts that can help you to communicate about the project status and progress to your team and stake holders.
Project milestones can be shown in a simple time line chart in excel. While the chart doesn’t look complicated, it can provide good amount of information on project progress in a simple and understandable chart.
We will learn to create a project milestone chart like this:
Steps to create a project milestone chart in excel
- In order to create a project milestone chart, we need to have the milestone data. The simplest format for milestone data is Date and the milestone. But since our chart requires the milestone to be displayed at a certain height on the chart, we will add the third column – height.
PS: the height column can be easily calculated using formulas. I leave it to your imagination. - Once you have the data in the above format, we will add 2 more helper columns – named DUMMY and Milestone. The Dummy column is used to create the timeline (where Y axis value is zero). The milestone column is a more cleaned up version of milestones (see how it is showing #NA where the milestone is blank.)
- Now, select the date and dummy columns and insert a line chart.
- To this chart, we will add one more data series – Height column.
- Now select the height data series and change the chart type to a bar chart. Also set the height series to be plotted on secondary axis. Learn more about combining 2 chart types and adding secondary axis in excel.
- We will also set the horizontal / axis labels for the height series as the “milestones”. We need to do this so that when we set the data labels for the height series, we will see the milestone instead of month.
- At this point our chart should look like this:
- Now, we will add data labels to the height series. Set the label type as “category”
- We will also add error bars to the height series (the bar chart). We will configure the error bar in such a way that they are shown 100% on the negative side only.
- After doing this, the chart should look like this:
- Finally we will do some formatting like,
- Removing fill color / line from height series by setting them to None / transparent.
- Changing the error bar color to a dull shade of gray.
- Adding chart title and aligning it.
- Removing vertical axes and gridlines.
- Formatting horizontal axis – changing label orientation, removing tick marks.
After all this is done, our project milestone time line chart should look like this:
- That is all, we now have a cool looking project milestone chart ready. Now go and achieve a milestone.
Download the Project Milestones Time Line chart template:
I am sure you are overwhelmed reading the above tutorial. You are probably thinking if it is easier to work towards the project milestones than creating this chart. Well, don’t worry. You can download the time line chart template and play with it to suit your needs.
Download 24 Project Management Templates for Excel
What next?
Project timelines are a great way to tell the story of project to strangers and new people joining your project. They are a good addition to project status meetings and reports.
In the next installment of this series, we will learn how to use Excel to manage timesheets and resources.
If you are new, please read the first 2 parts of this series: Project planning using gantt charts, Tracking day to day project progress with team todo lists.
Your thoughts and suggestions?
What are your ideas on communicating project progress to stakeholders and new comers? What do you think about this tutorial? Please share through comments.
20 Responses to “Simulating Dice throws – the correct way to do it in excel”
You have an interesting point, but the bell curve theory is nonsense. Certainly it is not what you would want, even if it were true.
Alpha Bravo - Although not a distribution curve in the strict sense, is does reflect the actual results of throwing two physical dice.
And reflects the following . .
There is 1 way of throwing a total of 2
There are 2 ways of throwing a total of 3
There are 3 ways of throwing a total of 4
There are 4 ways of throwing a total of 5
There are 5 ways of throwing a total of 6
There are 6 ways of throwing a total of 7
There are 5 ways of throwing a total of 8
There are 4 ways of throwing a total of 9
There are 3 ways of throwing a total of 10
There are 2 ways of throwing a total of 11
There is 1 way of throwing a total of 12
@alpha bravo ... welcome... 🙂
either your comment or your dice is loaded 😉
I am afraid the distribution shown in the right graph is what you get when you throw a pair of dice in real world. As Karl already explained, it is not random behavior you see when you try to combine 2 random events (individual dice throws), but more of order due to how things work.
@Karl, thanks 🙂
When simulating a coin toss, the ROUND function you used is appropriate. However, your die simulation formula should use INT instead of ROUND:
=INT(RAND()*6)+1
Otherwise, the rounding causes half of each number's predictions to be applied to the next higher number. Also, you'd get a count for 7, which isn't possible in a die.
To illustrate, I set up 1200 trials of each formula in a worksheet and counted the results. The image here shows the table and a histogram of results:
http://peltiertech.com/WordPress/wp-content/img200808/RandonDieTrials.png
@Jon: thanks for pointing this out. You are absolutely right. INT() is what I should I have used instead of ROUND() as it reduces the possibility of having either 1 or 6 by almost half that of having other numbers.
this is such a good thing to learn, helps me a lot in my future simulations.
Btw, the actual graphs I have shown were plotted based on randbetween() and not from rand()*6, so they still hold good.
Updating the post to include your comments as it helps everyone to know this.
By the way, the distribution is not a Gaussian distribution, as Karl points out. However, when you add the simulations of many dice together (i.e., ten throws), the overall results will approximate a Gaussian distribution. If my feeble memory serves me, this is the Central Limit Theorem.
@Jon, that is right, you have to nearly throw infinite number of dice and add their face counts to get a perfect bell curve or Gaussian distribution, but as the central limit theorem suggests, our curve should roughly look like a bell curve... 🙂
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I'm afraid to say that this is a badly stated and ambiguous post, which is likely to cause errors and misunderstanding.
Aside from the initial use of round() instead of int(),.. (you've since corrected), you made several crucial mistakes by not accurately and unambiguously stating the details.
Firstly, you said:
"this little function generates a random fraction between 0 and 1"
Correctly stated this should be:
"this little function generates a random fraction F where 0 <= F < 1".
Secondly, I guess because you were a little fuzzy about the exact range of values returned by rand(), you have then been just as ambiguous in stating:
"I usually write int(rand()*12)+1 if I need a random number between 0 to 12".
(that implies 13 integers, not 12)
Your formula, does not return 13 integers between 0 to 12.
It returns 12 integers between 1 and 12 (inclusive).
-- As rand() returns a random fraction F where 0 <= F < 1, you can obviously can only get integers between 1 and 12 (inclusive) from your formula as stated above, but clearly not zero.
If you had said either:
"I usually write int(rand()*12) if I need a random number between 0 to 11 (inclusive)",
or:
"I usually write int(rand()*12)+1 if I need a random number between 1 to 12 (inclusive)"
then you would have been correct.
Unfortunately, you FAIL! -- repeat 5th grade please!
Your Fifth Grade Maths Teacher
Idk if I'm on the right forum for this or how soon one can reply, but I'm working on a test using Excel and I have a table set up to get all my answers from BUT I need to generate 10,000 answers from this one table. Every time, I try to do this I get 10,000 duplicate answers. I know there has to be some simple command I have left out or not used at all, any help would be extremely helpful! (And I already have the dice figured out lol)
Roll 4Dice with 20Sides (4D20) if the total < 20 add the sum of a rerolled 2D20. What is the average total over 10,000 turns? (Short and sweet)
Like I said when I try to simulate 10,000turns I just get "67" 10,000times -_- help please! 😀
@Justin
This is a good example to use for basic simulation
have a look at the file I have posted at:
https://rapidshare.com/files/1257689536/4_Dice.xlsx
It uses a variable size dice which you set
Has 4 Dice
Throws them 10,000 times
If Total per roll < 20 uses the sum of 2 extra dice Adds up the scores Averages the results You can read more about how it was constructed by reading this post: http://chandoo.org/wp/2010/05/06/data-tables-monte-carlo-simulations-in-excel-a-comprehensive-guide/
Oh derp, i fell for this trap too, thinking i was makeing a good dice roll simulation.. instead of just got an average of everything 😛
Noteably This dice trow simulate page is kinda important, as most roleplay dice games were hard.. i mean, a crit failure or crit hit (rolling double 1's or double 6's) in a a game for example dungeons and dragons, if you dont do the roll each induvidual dice, then theres a higher chance of scoreing a crit hit or a crit failure on attacking..
I've been working on this for awhile. So here's a few issues I've come across and solved.
#1. round() does work, but you add 0.5 as the constant, not 1.
trunc() and int() give you the same distributions as round() when you use the constant 1, so among the three functions they are all equally fair as long as you remember what you're doing when you use one rather than the other. I've proven it with a rough mathematical proof -- I say rough only because I'm not a proper mathematician.
In short, depending on the function (s is the number of sides, and R stands in for RAND() ):
round(f), where f = sR + 0.5
trunc(f), where f = sR + 1
int(f), where f = sR + 1
will all give you the same distribution, meaning that between the three functions they are fair and none favors something more than the others. However...
#2. None of the above gets you around the uneven distribution of possible outcomes of primes not found in the factorization of the base being used (base-10, since we're using decimal; and the prime factorization of 10 is 2 and 5).
With a 10-sided die, where your equation would be
=ROUND(6*RAND()+0.5)
Your distribution of possible values is even across all ten possibilities.
However, if you use the most basic die, a 6-sided die, the distributions favor some rolls over others. Let's assume your random number can only generate down to the thousandths (0.000 ? R ? 0.999). The distribution of possible outcomes of your function are:
1: 167
2: 167
3: 166
4: 167
5: 167
6: 166
So 4 and 6 are always under-represented in the distribution by 1 less than their compatriots. This is true no matter how many decimals you allow, though the distribution gets closer and closer to equal the further towards infinite decimal places you go.
This carries over to all die whose numbers of sides do not factor down to a prime factorization of some exponential values of 2 and 5.
So, then, how can we fix this one, tiny issue in a practical manner that doesn't make our heads hurt or put unnecessary strain on the computer?
Real quick addendum to the above:
Obviously when I put the equation after the example of the 10-sided die, I meant to put a 10*RAND() instead of a 6*RAND(). Oops!
Also, where I have 0.000 ? R ? 0.999, the ?'s are supposed to be less-than-or-equal-to signs but the comments didn't like that. Oh well.
How do you keep adding up the total? I would like to have a cell which keeps adding up the total sum of the two dices, even after a new number is generated in the cells when you refresh or generate new numbers.
So, how do you simulate rolling 12 dice? Do you write int(rand()*6) 12 times?
Is there a simpler way of simulating n dice in Excel?
I've run this code in VBA
Sub generate()
Application.ScreenUpdating = False
Application.Calculation = False
Dim app, i As Long
Set app = Application.WorksheetFunction
For i = 3 To 10002
Cells(i, 3).Value = i - 2
Cells(i, 4).Value = app.RandBetween(2, 12)
Cells(i, 5).Value = app.RandBetween(1, 6) + app.RandBetween(1, 6)
Next
Application.ScreenUpdating = True
Application.Calculation = True
End Sub
But I get the same distribution for both columns 4 and 5
Why ?
@Mohammed
I would expect to get the same distribution as you have effectively used the same function