Learn Statistics & Probability using MS Excel

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One of the most dreaded courses during my under-graduation is Probability, Statistics & Queuing Theory. We called it PSQT. I struggled to understand the significance and concept of this course as I could barely concentrate in the class. We had a professor, who is probably a genius, but the moment he started the class, I would magically fall in to one of my after-noon naps. When I woke up, we are either in the middle of an elaborate t-test or going thru intricacies of a Markovian queue.

This was all 11 years ago. Later in life, I have embraced the world of probability & statistics. I still fear queues. May be I will get there one day. 😉

A good understanding of statistics & probability theory is necessary if you want to model complex real-life problems using Excel or similar tools. Naturally, Excel has several functions, features & supported add-ins to help you in this area.

Today, I want to share some of this with you. This article is broken down in to 3 parts.

  1. Learning Statistics & Probability using Excel
  2. Downloadable Excel Workbooks to understand
  3. Full blown models & simulations in Excel

#1 – Learning Statistics & Probability Concepts using Excel

Using Excel RAND functions

Excel has several powerful functions (formulas) to generate random numbers, random data. You can combine these functions to generate data that has certain parameters – like a give mean, standard deviation or follows a certain type of distribution.

Go thru Using Excel’s Random Functions for a detailed overview these techniques.

Simulating Dice Throws in Excel

One of the fundamental ways to learn about Probability is to look at dice throws. A dice has 6 faces and on each throw, any of the 6 faces turning up is equally likely. So, we say, each face has 1/6th probability of showing up. If you want to simulate this in Excel, you can use the formula RANDBETWEEN like this, =RANDBETWEEN(1,6). On each run, this formula would throw up a random number between 1 & 6 (including both).

For more, Simulating Dice Throws in Excel

Shuffling a List of Values in Excel

Understanding permutations and combinations is essential when it comes to modeling many real-world problems. Using Excel’s RAND, VLOOKUP and SMALL formulas we can generate a random permutation of a given list of values (in other words – we can shuffle the list).

Shuffling a list of values in Excel

To learn this read, Shuffling a list of values in Excel

Generate Frequency Distribution from Data

Often, when you are analyzing data, you need to understand how the data is distributed. Again, Excel has just the right function for this sort of thing. FREQUENCY(). In this simple tutorial, learn how to use Excel’s FREQUENCY formula to generate frequency distribution of given data.

Calculating Statistical Frequency Distribution in Excel

 

Read Frequency Distributions in Excel

Trend Analysis & Forecasting using Excel

One of the most common applications of statistics is trend analysis & forecasting. Again, Excel shines with a lot of powerful formulas, built-in features and charting tools to help you understand the data & predict future based on that.

Since this is a big topic, we have covered it in 3 parts –

Part 1- Introduction to Trend Analysis & Forecasting: In this, we will learn what is trend analysis & forecasting. We will see manual forecasting technique in Excel. We will use Excel charts to depict our analysis and results.

Trend Analysis & Forecasting using Manual Forecasting Technique in Excel

 

Part 2 – Trend Analysis & Forecasting using Excel Functions

In this second part, we learn about Excel’s functions like LINEST, TREND, FORECAST, SLOPE, INTERCEPT, LOGEST and GROWTH. These powerful formulas can process lots of data and extract the trend information dynamically.

 

Trend Analysis and Forecasting using Excel's functions & charts

 

Part 3 – Trend Analysis & Forecasting using Charts & Macros

In the final part, we talk about how to use Excel chart’s trend analysis & forecasting features to estimate the trend & predict future values based on the data.

Trend Analysis & Forecasting using Excel Charts & VBA

 

We also learn how to use Macros (VBA) to augment Excel chart’s trend-lines with useful information.

Visualizing Distribution of data with Box Plots

Box plots are an excellent way to understand the distribution of data. Unfortunately, there is no direct option to make a box plot from given data in Excel. That is where, this tutorial comes handy.

Box plots in Excel - How to

Learn how to create box plots in Excel.

more on Box plots.

 

#2 Downloadable Excel Workbooks

Learn Basic Statistics & Gaussian Distribution using this Excel Workbook

Glen, one of our long time readers shared this file with me. It lets you perform statistical analysis, quality control analysis, visualize Gaussian distribution based on the data you enter.

Click here to download the workbook.

Gaussian Distribution of Data in Excel

Thanks Glen.

More Downloadable Workbooks

Almost all of the links in this page will take you to detailed articles on Chandoo.org, where you can also find downloadable workbook with examples. So just click thru and learn. 🙂

#3 Full blown models & simulations in Excel

A full blown model lets you learn various statistical concepts, Excel features and how to bring them all together to mimic a real-life situation.

Simulating Deal or No Deal game in Excel

In this simulation of Deal or No Deal, a popular television game, we use basic probability, permutations and Excel formulas features. You will learn how to assign random values to the suit-cases, how to use circular references, how to calculate the banker’s offer.

Simulation of Deal or No Deal game in Excel

 

Simulation of Deal or No Deal game in Excel

Generating Housie / Bingo Tickets in Excel

Housie (Bingo) is a popular recreational game where the tickets contain 15 numbers between 1 to 90, arranged in 10 columns (3×10 grid). First column has numbers between 1 to 9, second column has 10 to 19 so on..

Generating a bingo ticket in Excel is a nice exercise in statistics, permutations and Excel formulas.

Generating Housie / Bingo tickets using Excel

Learn from Bingo / Housie Tickets in Excel

Data Tables & Monte Carlo Simulations in Excel

Excel has powerful features to let us do complex simulations of real world situations. One such feature is called as data table.

The Data Table allows a set of what if questions to be posed and answered simply, and is useful in sensitivity analysis, variance analysis and even Monte Carlo (Stochastic) analysis of real life model within Excel.

The case of Blue Sky Mining Company

To help you learn about data tables, Monte Carlo simulations, we have put together a fictional mining company – Blue Sky co. and analyzed its performance under various assumptions & simulations.

Data Tables & Monte-Carlo Simulations using Excel

To learn about this, visit Data Tables & Monte-Carlo Simulations page.

Modeling & Scheduling a FIFO (First In First Out) Queue in Excel

FIFO queues are very common in life. You can see them at Airports, coffee shops, Apple stores; Except at Airports it is FIFOUYC (FIFO Unless You are Crew).

In this article, we model & schedule a FIFO queue using Excel.

More Full Blown Models & Simulations in Excel

For more examples, check out these links.

Do you use Statistical Concepts for your work?

As a small business owner, a good portion of my work involves statistical analysis, forecasting and simulation. I run estimates for our website traffic, revenues. I run statistical tests (split tests etc.) to optimize our sales pages, website. I estimate when my kids wake up from their nap (based on past experience) and plan my work accordingly. Thankfully, for the last part, I do not use Excel 😀

What about you? Do you use statistical concepts for your work? What are the things you use and how does Excel help you in that? What are your favorite formulas, features and tips? Please share using comments.

Special thanks to Hui & Glen

Many thanks to Hui, our resident Excel ninja for writing many of the articles on statistics, simulation, forecasting & trend analysis.

Special thanks to Glen for sharing the analyze-this file with us.

Say thanks to them if you enjoyed this.

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49 Responses to “Project Management Dashboard / Project Status Report using Excel [Part 6 of 6]”

  1. [...] display milestones Part 4: Time sheets and Resource management Issue Trackers & Risk Management Project Status Reporting – Dashboard Bonus Post: Using Burn Down Charts to Understand Project [...]

  2. Alex says:

    Excellent!

    I was looking forward to this and you've done it again...Shame I can't claim it was all my own work 😉

    ps hope you're getting enough sleep

  3. Izabel says:

    Excelent !!! Tks to share your knowledge with us.
    Izabel
    Sao Paulo - Brazil

  4. Miguel says:

    Nice job!.

    I'm also keen on PM Excel Dashboards. Please, take a look at

    http://screencast.com/t/TyaxH5r4mDf

    That's one example of my Project control Spreadsheets.

    Cheers

  5. [...] haired Dilbert hat zum Abschluss einer Artikeserie zum Thema Projektmanagement mit Excel eine Anleitung zum Bau eines Projekt-Dashboards veröffentlicht. Ein Dashboard ist eine Visualisierungsform für große Mengen von meist [...]

  6. Rishil says:

    Quite a nice and helpful article. I am sure excel is one of the most used application across many many big companies. And your info on project status update using excel would surely be usefull. Keep up the good work on this blog site. Also to share there are some open source flash-based graphing and charting solution which caould also be used on any project..
    http://askwiki.blogspot.com/2009/07/how-to-create-quality-charts-using.html

  7. Chandoo says:

    @Alex, Izabel .. thank you 🙂

    @Miguel: Thank you. Your dashboard looks very good. It is inclined towards the budget and finances of the project. I have kept those aspects out of this series. May be I will revisit the financial aspect of projects at a later point.

    @Rishil: Thank you. Yes, you can create flash based charts (or even simple image based charts) and embed them in a project dashboard that can be published to the team using intranet (like sharepoint). This is how large companies usually do it. Thanks for sharing the Askwiki article.

  8. Tim says:

    Great looking dashboard!! Do you have a version for the Mac versions of Office available?

    Thanks

  9. ravi says:

    Chandoo,
    this is great piece of collating info.I liked it and shall try using it in office.
    Thanks for the all hard work behind this.

  10. Mrigank says:

    Chandoo,

    Kudos. This is really as simple as it gets for laymen. We did this sort of stuff in Consulting - but this can now become really simple for people. Will have my team look at this! Great work.

    thanks,

    Mrigank

  11. [...] I suggest reading my 7 part series on project management using excel. Starting with Excel Gantt Charts to Project Dashboards. [...]

  12. bw says:

    Just downloaded the project management template bundle...great!

    Have you done anywork on a Project Portfolio Dashboard template?

  13. Chandoo says:

    @Bw... Thanks for getting a copy of the templates. 🙂 I have worked on few assignments where we built such templates. But these are similar to other regular dashboard templates. I will share some of these ideas in a later post someday. Meanwhile if you have any ideas on how to structure project portfolio dashboard, let me know using comments or email.

  14. [...] to display milestones Time sheets and Resource management Issue Trackers & Risk Management Project Status Reporting – Dashboard Bonus Post: Using Burn Down Charts to Understand Project [...]

  15. [...] display milestones Time sheets and Resource management Part 5: Issue Trackers & Risk Management Project Status Reporting – Dashboard Bonus Post: Using Burn Down Charts to Understand Project [...]

  16. [...] to display milestones Time sheets and Resource management Issue Trackers & Risk Management Project Status Reporting – Dashboard Bonus Post: Using Burn Down Charts to Understand Project [...]

  17. Josh L says:

    Thanks fro the great ideas! To get a sense of the layout and design of a Dashboard more geared toward Cost and Schedule anaysis, check out the example Dashboard at http://www.ProjectDashboards.com which was built entirely in excel.

  18. DS says:

    hey,

    i just need a simple Chart where by i can show some of the projects by % wise. no dates required.

    1st column Project name and 2nd column will be status (filled with %). can you pls help me out.

    Thanks.

  19. Chandoo says:

    @DS... if you have excel 2007, you can use data bars in conditional formatting for this purpose.

  20. Larph says:

    Hi Chandoo - this series is an excellent resource and tutorial, thank you for sharing.

    When I sat down to consider what my dashboard should look like, one of the most important features for me is to be able to maintain version control and to show simply on what version is on display.

    Apart from the naming convention of the file name, is there a good way to do this within a dashboard? I'd be interested to hear your thoughts!

  21. Chandoo says:

    @Larph: Welcome 🙂

    > You can do version control thru Macros (but always remember that your audience can disable macros)

    > Another option is to use a static time stamp / version number in the title page of dashboard that you update manually whenever you make changes to the file

    > In excel 2010, you can keep track of file versions from File menu. This can be used to select a previous version of dashboard.

    > Best option is to use a version control system like SVN or upload files to Sharepoint or something like that. This will take care of versioning for you (although it is a bit technical and dashboard audience may have difficulty figuring the versions out).

    > The easiest option is to use filenames and the CELL() formula to get the version number (or date) from the filename so you can show it on the dashboard.

  22. Di says:

    Hi Chandoo... I'm following you from Brazil...
    I would like to thank you for the tips about excel, mainly with dashboards ... It helped me a lot …
    Take care...

    Di

  23. Kelly Fidei says:

    On the dashboard when I print, the text is blanked out in the middle of the Issues list - suggestions on how to fix?

  24. Neil Joseph says:

    Hi Chandoo, do you have an equivalent Project Management Dashboard / Project Status Report for MS Office 2010?

  25. Paul Brown says:

    As a Microsoft trainer I'm interested in your choice of Excel for project management. I'm assuming that you've tried Microsoft Project and have decided not to use it? We get folks on our MS Project courses who've tried to use Excel for PM purposes and none of them have made such an impressive project plan, but I wonder is it worth all the effort?

  26. Arc Nteimam Finomo says:

    This looks very interesting. How may I be a part of this

  27. Stephanie says:

    Does this template work in Google Spreadsheets?

  28. Thierry Lutonto says:

    Many thanks for sharing your expertise with us. Keep up the good work 🙂

  29. ppm software says:

    Heya i'm for the first time here. I came across this board and I to find It really helpful & it helped me out a lot. I am hoping to offer one thing again and aid others like you helped me.

  30. Adam G says:

    Hi Chandoo,
    Your PM dashboards impressed me so much that I've downloaded the Portfolio and Project Management package.  All of the documents look very professional.
    I was going through the Portfolio dashboard and I had a question.  
    When I enter in additional holidays they are highlighted in the gantt chart.  Is it possible so that the name of the holiday shows up in the highlighted area of the gantt chart.
    Thanks
    Adam

  31. alan foster says:

    can you confirm that the downloads will work on a mac - excel for mac v14.3.6

    thanks

  32. Paul says:

    Made a slight variation on the schedule sheet,

    1. Add a date column for start
    2. In week column cell use =weeknum() and link to date cell
    3. Hide week column

    When you enter in a date for each task the week number is populated accordingly
    simple but more effective, you can also dynamically link the date cell to your MSP project file for even more automation!!

  33. Irick Burris says:

    I purchased a copy of the project management dashboard excel file. I misplaced the password to unlock the file and make modification. Can you please resend the password.

    Thank much in advance...

  34. ninemsn.com.au says:

    Hi there! I just would like to give you a big thumbs up for your great info
    you've got right here on this post. I'll be returning to your website
    for more soon.

  35. Vijay says:

    I bought ur project management template just want to know how to hide the budget section from portfolio?

  36. Squirrel says:

    Hi, Thanks - very good job you've prepared!
    You've inspired me as well 🙂
    Best regards

  37. mj says:

    Hello!
    I am using a gantt chart template which i got from your website. All is good just when I add all my acitivities in data spreadsheet and then go back to gantt chart to view them, I only see first 9 and then I need to keep scrolling for the next ones. is it possible to see most of the activities if not all in the single frame.
    thanks for answering!

  38. Sanford says:

    This is my first time pay a visit at here and i am actually happy to read all at alone place.

  39. gerald says:

    I am interested in your dashboard; downloaded the locked version, unable to use it...do you have a user guide that is available that I can see and use on the locked version?

  40. Arun says:

    Please send me daily newsletter

  41. Ramya says:

    Hi,
    I downloaded the PM dashboard and the gantt chart only has dates till the year 2016. How do I change this to include 2017 FY as well.
    When I enter a activity for this year , it fails to show up on the chart.

  42. Hari says:

    Hi

    Would.like to purchase the project management .kits

    Pls share the payment link in INR

    Also share your contact number to speak with you

    Regards
    Hari
    9384825926

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