Are You Trendy ?
Chandoo is off Holidaying teaching excel in the Maldives and has lent me the keys to his Blog (Chandoo.org) and this week I plan to take it for a spin.
I will be posting 3 posts on Trend Analysis/Forecasting using Excel and a forth post on some Hidden Worksheet Properties which I stumbled onto last week !
Hopefully if I look after the Blog while Chandoo is gone, He will let me borrow the keys another day.
Forecasting
“Tomorrows weather will be fine and hot with a chance of showers in the morning.”
We have all seen this type of forecasting during the nightly news.
This week I am going to go through the basics of forecasting and trend analysis using Excel as a tool.
We will look at some simple trends and make predictions about future values.
In later posts we will look at more complex data and other methods of tackling these analysis.
Introduction
Often you may have a set of data and need to know what an intermediate or future value of that data may be.
This week we will investigate 3 methods of tackling this problem using Excel.
In this post we’ll look at doing forecasting manually
In the second post we’ll look at a few excel functions that assist us with forecasting
The third post will discuss a method of looking at any value along an Excel generated Trend Line and give you a tool to assist you in this.
Manual Forecasting
In all environments where numbers are collected and people make use of these numbers the ability to forecast or extrapolate data may be required.
In forecasting we are going to look at the trends that the data has and use these trends to help forecast future values or values outside the measured data. The trends can also be used to infill data where gaps may be missing in the collected data.
This post will look at doing this manually, albeit with some help from Excel.
We will examine a business that makes things and we will measure some measurement of those things every 5 days. In trend analysis it doesn’t matter what you measure or what your measuring it against.
We have collected some data which is tabulated
| Day | Measure |
| 5 | 7 |
| 10 | 10 |
| 15 | 24 |
| 25 | 30 |
| 30 | 40 |
One of the easiest ways to visualise this relationship is to draw a quick chart of one measure vs a base or in our case a time line.
This can be shown graphically as a simple Excel Scatter chart
You can see that there is some level of variability in the measurement as the data doesn’t quite fit a straight line.
Manually we can make an estimate of a line of best fit and draw it on the chart by adding a new data series consisting of 2 points.
There are 3 quick methods of using this line of best fit
- Manual Estimates
- Equal Triangles
- Equation for the line
Manual Estimates
If we want to know what the measurement would be for a location where no measurement was taken we can use the chart and 2 quick lines to show in this example that for 20 days we would expect a measurement of about 26 units.
This can also be used for extrapolation of our data past the limits of what was measured.
By extrapolating the Line of Best Fit beyond the data, the same technique can be applied to estimating what some future value maybe.
Equal Triangles
Equal Triangles is a technique where a simple ratios of 2 similarly shaped but different sized right angle triangles can be used to make estimates of missing or extrapolated data.
Using Equal Triangles the ratio of the height to the width of Triangle 1 (Red) is equal to the ratio of the height to the width of Triangle 2 (Blue).
So in the example above
Y1/X1 = Y2/X2
Y1 = 38 – 8 = 30
X1 = 30 – 5 = 25
Y1/X1 = 30/25 = 1.2
So for Triangle 2
Y2/X2 = 1.2
Y2 = ? – 8
X2 = 20 – 5 = 15
from Y2/X2 = 1.2
(? – 8 ) /15 – 1.2
We can rewrite this as
? = 8 + 1.2 x 15 = 26.0
Or
Unknown Y = Min Y + Ratio x (New X – Min x)
Once we have an equation we can setup a new series on out chart based on an equation in some cells and then directly plot the data onto our chart.
In this case we have used the equation =F105+1.2*(E111-E105)
Equation of the line of Best Fit
If we are using a straight line to model our line of best fit, we can also write an equation for the line in the form
Y = mX + c
Where: Y is the unknown measure
X is the X value for which we want to know the value of Y
m is the gradient of the line
c is the Y intercept of the line (or Y value when there is no X value or X =0 )
The gradient m is calculated as the Rise / Run or in our example 30/25 = 1.2
The Y Intercept is the value when x = 0. This can be back calculated from the first point (5,8)
C = 8 – (5 x 1.2) = 2.0
So the equation for our line of best fit is Y = 1.2 X + 2
We have used this in the next example =E136*1.2 + 2
The good thing about having an equation for the line is that we can use that to calculate any value of our measure.
So if we want to know the measure on a day outside the range we measured, say the 40th day
Downloads
You can download examples of all the above charts from the following link
https://chandoo.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Trends1.xls
Benefits of Manual Estimation
- Applicable to simple models
- Can be used without a computer or a calculator in the field
- Gives the user a better feel for the data
Problems of Manual Estimation
- Only applicable to simple models
- Reliant on the accuracy of your estimate of the trend
- No measure of how accurately your estimate fits the data
Next:
In the next post we will look at using excel functions to automatically estimate lines of best fit and other excel functions to aid in estimation of non-linear functions.
Further Readings
28 Responses to “2010 Calendar – Excel Template [Downloads]”
[...] Download and print the calendars today. You can add notes to individual dates or complete … [...] Uni Ego / Free 2010 Calendar – Download and Print Year 2010 Calendar today [...]
Any chance on a 2016 calendar?
Afternoon,
I have one similar calander that I added conditional formatting to so that I could highlight any planned factory holidays. I think i "borrowed" the formula from another calander so I won't post it here.
I also added week numbers to it using the formula =WEEKNUM(MAX(C6:I6)) Where C6:I6 is the range of dates in that give week. It works fine on most of the months but return strange values on other months (Week 6 in October?) I can't see any logic behind why it does this.
Any suggestions for an alternative formula to give the week numbers?
Regards,
William
Hi Chandoo,
I've added a new feature on your spreadsheet.
This control can be useful for all the sheets where you need to check dates.
Cheers
http://cid-69a78592a23a8438.skydrive.live.com/self.aspx/.Public/2010-calendar%5E_Miguel.xls
Hi Chandoo,
Nice calendar.
Till now whichever calendar I saw in Excel, it contained only the outline sheet.
Good to see monthly views and the mini view too.
Liked the mini view much. 🙂
-Nimesh
@William: This weeknum may be because the input dates to max are not properly formatting as excel dates.
Good tip on the conditional formatting and holidays btw...
@Migueal: Now that is super awesome. This is the reason why I love to blog. Readers will always one up me with such cool alternatives. Thank you for sharing this with us.
@Nimesh: You are welcome 🙂
is it possible to get the Notes section on the outline page to display the notes added to the month page for a specific date?
So if you add thing for January 2nd, and then select January 2nd those notes appear on the outline page
@Shish... You can do that using some formula magic. I would not recommend pushing excel to that as outlook / google calendar / icalc etc. do exactly that much more elegantly.
[...] Perpetual Excel Calendar – Free Downloadable Template [...]
Happy christmas to all of you!
This is really awesome. The nicest calender I've seen for Excel. I also like Miguels version of the sheet.
Just one "feature" is missing to me. As I live in Germany - where weeks start on Monday - I'd like to change this. Could someone please give me a hint how to do this?
Thanks in advance
Jörg
Hi Chandoo, I’ve added some new features on your spreadsheet with your permission.
Check it here:
http://cid-6b219f16da7128e3.skydrive.live.com/self.aspx/.Public/Calendar%5E_Pedro.xlsm
Miguel, this calendar is translated to Spanish language.
Jörg, this new approach allows us to start weeks on Monday.
Also it's possible to start weeks on Sunday if you enable Excel macros and push the arrows.
Best Regards,
Pedro.
@Pedro.. superb stuff.. thanks for sharing the file with all of us.
Hi Chandoo, for dates before March 1, 1900 our calendars are wrong.
In Microsoft Excel, DATE, EOMONTH, WEEKDAY functions return an incorrect result between Monday, January 1, 1900 and Wednesday, February 28, 1900.
See this page: http://support.microsoft.com/kb/214326/en-us/
Microsoft Excel incorrectly assumes that the year 1900 is a leap year in all Excel versions.
That's the reason why our calendar versions only work from March, 1, 1900 until December, 31, 9999.
Your comments are welcome.
Pedro.
@Pedro.. Thanks for pointing that out. wow... This reminds me of the Joel Spolsky's first BillG review - http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2006/06/16.html (read it, I am sure you would love it.) when Bill out of blue asks about date time implementations for VBA (which Joel is the program manager for...)
Thanks for sharing the URL too... Here is a specially made, chocolate sprinkled, extra fluffy donut for you 🙂
Hi Chandoo, thanks a lot for the donut but I prefer it without chocolate!
Always it's good to know a little history of Excel.
The Joel Spolsky’s last BillG Excel review was about the "Hall of Tortured Souls"
(See this Excel 95 Easter Egg here: http://www.eeggs.com/items/719.html)
Do not miss the humor!
@Chandoo.. I just return with a new calendar version.
http://cid-6b219f16da7128e3.skydrive.live.com/self.aspx/.Public/calendar-pedrowave.xltx
It helped me to practice conditional formatting, formulas to show check boxes, data validation drop down list, find out Thanksgiving Day's date for any year, how to find dates of public holidays using Excel, all reading your wonderful posts!
Perpetual Calendar Spanish version starting weeks on Monday:
http://cid-6b219f16da7128e3.skydrive.live.com/self.aspx/.Public/calendario-pedrowave.xltx
Main characteristics:
- Not macros.
- Select a year from 1900 to 9999 with a dropdown listbox.
- All date fields with the real date format.
- Easy language change of day of the week and month names because are also dates.
- Hide Saturdays and/or Sundays.
- Week starting on Sunday or Monday.
- Week and month numbers.
- Hyperlink between sheets.
- Consistent colors to Holidays, Diary and Events dates.
- Easy change of Holidays by country.
- Include 80 World Days and you can add more.
- A diary with my birthday and 50 more programable appointments.
- Check box to hide individual dates or all.
- Holidays, diary and events text are showed on each month's sheet.
- Ranges defined with Name Manager variables.
I'll appreciate if you make me some suggestions to improve this calendar.
Pedro.
Please, I need help!
I like all calendar from Pedro, thank you for them. Let me show my problem:
I have 2 excel cells (for example AE12 and AE13) which mean the starting and the ending date of my duty. I need a macro to insert sheets with label YEAR. MONTH (for example 2010. August or similar) with the proper datas between the two dates. Is it possible?
Thank you for reading me and sorry about my terribel english! 🙂
Hello Pedro,
Thanks so much for the modified calendar template. I love the extra functionality you added. Is there any way you could upload an unlocked version? I wanted to change some of the comments and data validation so I could use it for one of my applications.
As for feedback on potential improvements, with all the additions you made the file runs pretty slow. I'm sure this has to do with all the interconnectivity between the various tabs, but if there is a way to use less memory via more efficient formulas or something else I think this would make it easier to use. I have a brand new computer and with it running alone the response was pretty slow. One of the changes I'm making is changing the order of the months to match my company's fiscal year, so maybe something to automate a change like that could be useful.
Cheers,
Peter
Peter, my calendars are unlocked but you need Excel 2007 and 2010 versions to open them.
Now I return with a new Programmable Task Calendar:
http://cid-6b219f16da7128e3.office.live.com/view.aspx/.Public/Calendario%20de%20Tareas.xlsx
Wath an introductory video here:
http://pedrowave.blogspot.com/2010/10/programmable-task-calendar.html
This new calendar allows to select the start month to match the school and fiscal year.
This is great stuff Chandoo and company
Wanted to know if someone had built something similar
I need to store one Excel Sheet on this calendar that has all the holidays
US Holidays appear in RED
UK Holidays appear in Blue
Meetings appear in Green
Submissions appear in Orange
Is there a way I can store the list in a separate worksheet and all the calendars get updated with this?
Thanks
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[...] is all! http://chandoo.org/wp/2009/12/11/2010-calendar-excel-template-downloads/ See more Templates at http://www.vertex42.com/ Share this:Like this:LikeBe the first to like this [...]
Greetings,
Thanks for this wonderful excel vacation tracker. I notice that the tracker only has three months November, December and January 2015, however, I would like to add the other ten months for 2014. Can you please instruct me on how I can add the other months?
Thanking you in advance.
Hi Chandoo,
Calendar: can this be printed as single sheet 8.5x11 inch per month
kanu
@Kanu
Yes,
You can resize it to fit
WOW! I just searching some of like this, that help me.
Thank you for sharing.