This is a guest post written by Paramdeep from Pristine. Chandoo.org is partnering with Pristine to bring an excel financial modeling online training program for you.
This is Part 6 of 6 on Financial Modeling using Excel
In this tutorial we are going to learn how to build assumptions & input sheets in our excel financial model. The 6 parts of this tutorial are,
- Introduction to Financial Modeling
- Building a layout for Project Evaluation Model – Best practices
- Building Inputs and Assumptions Sheet
- Building Projections for Project Evaluation
- Modeling the Cash Flow Statement and Projections
- Putting it all together – Final Project Evaluation Model
- Join our Financial Modeling Classes
I am sorry for the slight delay in the post. Things have been very hectic for the last few weeks as we were just completing our training on Financial Modeling in Excel – Real Estate (RE) sector for JP Morgan. The real estate valuation is very similar to the project evaluation that we are doing for the simple reason:
- Project evaluation and real estate valuation are limited duration projects (If you intend to sell the RE project in near future) unlike general companies (which are an on-going concern)
- For both these the timing of the cash is very important. A delay in the timing might appear to be ok for the developer, but the investor’s calculations (typically IRR) go for a toss
In India most of the RE developers are businessmen, who are concerned about the cash that the project generates. They are not really too bothered if they receive it in April or September (After all they are getting the cash). But the investors are really bothered by these delays – Some PE investors have a limited period investment horizon and some are too concerned about the IRR generated by the project. As we figured out in our class, Real estate projects are very sensitive to delays in cash generation! Excel is a great tool to show this effect in a matter of 30 secs (Use XIRR and data-tables). Maybe I will write about this functionality in one of my posts later!
For the time being lets come back to our project.
What is time value of money?
Let me start with a very simple to understand example.
- If you invest $100 in bank today, what would be its value 1 year down the line (assuming 10% interest rate)?
- The value should be 100*(1+10%) = $ 110.
- Now if you keep this invested for another year, what would be its value 2 years down the line?
- The value should be 110*(1+10%) = $ 121. I can also write it as 110*(1+10%)^2
- Similarly if you keep invested for 10 years, the value would be 110 * (1+10%)^10
This is the simple concept of compounding.
The inverse of this concept (What if you wanted $110 after 1 year, or 110*(1+10%)^10 after 10 years), how much should you invest today, is called discounting. Clearly $100 today is worth $110 a year after and $121 two years hence.
If I have more than 1 cash flows, I can discount them depending on the time duration and if I sum them all, its called Net Present Value (NPV) of all cash flows. We would take the outflows as Negative Cash and inflows as Positive Cash.
In excel, you can either discount all cash flows or calculate the NPV of the project by using the function =NPV(Discount Rate, Cash)
What is the rate on which money should be discounted?
When equity investors invest, they take greater risk as compared to banks lending money. Obviously their expectation of return would be higher. In some cases, the equity investor might have a return figure in mind (Based on the risk I am taking, I would like to have Min. 15% return on my invested money).
Sometimes, this expected return can be calculated by using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). What this states is very simple – Equity investors want a premium apart from the risk free rate (Lets call this expectation of equity investors as Re) . So there are two parts to the return expectation:
Re = Risk Free + Premium apart from Risk free
Now this premium depends on how much risk I am taking (Typically measured with respect to the volatility in returns with respect to the benchmark index). So I say:
Re = Risk Free + Beta * (Market Returns – Risk Free Returns)
The beta measures the movement of your returns with respect to market returns.
Now apart from the equity investors, there would be some debt in the project. Typically debt holders expect a lower return (Lets call it Rd).
The overall expectation of return from the project is the weighted average of these returns, Re and Rd.
To create this switch in the model, I have used data-validation (so that the user can just input one of these options)
To create such a drop down, use data validation – list option in excel
Internal Rate of Return
The same concept can be viewed from a return angle as well. If I can calculate a discount rate that makes the present value of the expected cash inflows just equal to the initial cost of the project, then that rate would be sort of a break even rate for me (Considering the time value of money). This rate is called the Internal rate of return (IRR).
Many investors have a certain hurdle IRR in mind and if the project is generating an IRR less than the hurdle IRR, they would not invest in the project.
To calculate IRR, there is no analytical solution possible. You can use the excel function =IRR(Cash) to get the IRR of the cash flows.
Making a decision in our case
First let me summarize the decision criteria for you. I would invest in the project based on the following conditions:
NPV Rule:
- If NPV > 0: The project may be accepted (Please note that positive NPV is not a sufficient condition)
- If NPV = 0: The investor should be indifferent
- If NPV < 0: The project must not be accepted (Please note that positive NPV is a necessary condition)
Please note that sometimes people might decide to take on the project even though the NPV is negative!
IRR Decision Rule
- If IRR > the required rate of return, accept the project
- If IRR < the required rate of return, reject the project
In our case, we are getting the NPV to be 21 and an IRR to be 12%. In this case it’s a borderline case and my feeling is that Mr. Samar would invest in the project (After all Mohit is his son!!) J.
Download Project Valuation Templates
I have created a template for you, where the subheadings are given and you have to link the model to get the cash numbers! You can download the same from here:
Project Valuation Template – Blank
You can go through the case and fill in the yellow boxes. I also recommend that you try to create this structure on your own (so that you get a hang of what information is to be recorded).
Also you can download this filled template and check, if the information you recorded, matches mine or not! 😉
Project Valuation Template – Solution
I am just doing that for the single sheet model and recommend that you do the same for multi-sheet model as a homework problem. If you face any issue, post your excel with the exact problem and we can discuss the way to move forward.
Next Steps
We are not done with a basic model for evaluation of a project. There are other nuances that we could not tackle (Given the time and space constraint) – What if the cash does not come at year end, what could be the scenarios in which this project is not a viable project, what can be done to make the project more interesting, etc. I do hope that you found the posts interesting and look forward to your comments and suggestions!
Read previous part of this series – Modeling Cash-flow projections
How do you make project investment decisions?
We are very eager to learn from your experience and know your ideas. What methods of valuation do you use? How do you model them? Share using comments.
Join our Financial Modeling Classes:
Chandoo.org is partnering with Pristine to bring an online financial modeling training program for you. Click here to learn more about our financial modeling class & join.
Added by Chandoo:
Thank you Paramdeep & Pristine:
Many thanks to Paramdeep and Pristine for making this happen. I am really enjoying this series and learning a lot of valuable tricks about financial modeling.
If you like this series, say thanks to Paramdeep. I am sure he can take any amount of appreciation without choking.
Pristine is an awesome training institute for CFA, PRIMA, GARP etc. They have trained folks at HSBC, BoA etc. Chandoo.org is partnering with Pristine to bring an excel financial modeling online training program for you.
66 Responses to “Budget vs. Actual Charts – 14 Charting Ideas You can Use”
[...] Update: Check out the results at Budget vs. Actual Charts [...]
Hi there:
I'm interested in understanding exactly how contestants #'s 1, 8 got their surplus or shortfall to show up at the top of the bar (is this overlapped or stacked somehow) and change colour? I hope this makes sense. I've tried to find samples and I can see contestant 8 (cuboo) may have used something called graphomate but I can't use this.
I need to create a bar chart that shows budget, and actual variance whether it be a surplus or a shortfall and I would like make it look like option 1 or 8 above but haven't a clear idea how to do it...any help would be greatly appreciated!
Regards..Linwe
[...] heute können alle Beiträge auf “Pointy Haired Dilbert” gesichtet und bis zum 12.04. bewertet werden. Falls mein Vorschlag - Nr. 8 - gefällt, freue ich [...]
Danken Sie Excel friend!
#6 is the best here. Simple, no extraneous visual effects.
I was all set to vote for #9...until I noticed its lack of y-axis labels. So I have to go with #6 also.
I think #6,#9 is enough .
#9 is my favorite
Nice data/ink ratio 😉
I agree with Jon - #6 for me.
8 & 14
I go for # 9 (simple) and #14 (complete)
I go for cuboo #8
cheers
#6 for overview at a glance / top management
#8 for deeper analysis / those who need more detailed information
#14 although I think you only need the bottom panel and I then would stack the Center charts vertically to make Center comparisons easier.
#10 gets my vote.
If there is a second place, then #14
denise
Hi, if I was not wrong, Samples 3,4 and 5 were created using Tableau software and not Excel. For more information on Tableau you might want to visit http://www.tableausoftware.com/. It was initially designed by Prof. Pat Hanrahan and his PhD students. I am not their salesperson but I thought someone might want to know more about this particular technology.
Hi Tin Seong Kam:
Thanks - I have looked at Tableau before. I have also found the means to reproduce something similar to chart 8 without using graphomate, and also chart 7. I proposed chart 9 as well but the overlap is confusing to some.
I am really not too concerned about showing actual budget figures but the variance in $ and % is important for my particular use. That is why I gravitate to the charts that seem to easily tell us that we have a surplus or a shortfall.
Thanks!
Linwe
11, 6, 9 (presque pareil)
7 pour la clarté
cuboo #8 ist my favorite
best regards...
8
8 is fantastic
I prefer N#8 - N# 1,7 & 8 use the settings of Rolf Hichert...
6 : The GURU (read "Jon Peltier ") has spoken,
SOO easy on eyes!
Hi Chandoo,
I liked Cuboo's submission. So #8 gets my vote.
Regards,
Sumit
Number 8 by far. Even though it's not part of the data display, the comments feature sells me. Variance explanations are as important as the actual variances.
I visually prefer #8, but #3 is really easier to understand, even if it lacks a lot of information (inverting budget/actual), legend, etc...
[...] All in all there are several great entries suggesting a good variety to present budget vs. actual performance. Go check them out. [...]
[...] reshape, zoo by learnr A reader of a Pointy Haired Dilbert blog enquired about best ways to visualise budget vs. actual performance. In response PHD challenged his blog readers to contribute their visualisations made using Excel or [...]
anyone willing to post their xls for these? Some really excellent exmaples.
To avoid the summary execution of the person presenting these to an executive team these charts must handle overspending as well as underspending, be comprehensible in 5 seconds and show the key fact clearly. The key fact isn't budget or actual - it's the magnitude of the gap!
Therefore:
#14 for nailing the key fact and being able to handle overspending. The winner therefore.
#6 for nailing speed-reading and being able to handle overspending, but somewhat obscuring the key fact. Second place.
#8 for nailing information depth and aesthetics. Third place.
I really wanted #8 to win, but that's the technician's view not the end-user's.
[...] Todas as contribuições podem ser vistas no seguinte endereço: Budget vs. Actual Charts – 14 Options You can Use Posted on April 5th, 2009 http://chandoo.org/wp/2009/04/05/budget-vs-actual-charts/ [...]
Social comments and analytics for this post...
This post was mentioned on Twitter by NancyJHess: I like to explore fav tweets of those I follow. Here is one from DutchDriver http://twurl.nl/17eiap Creative visual charts: Budget vs Actual...
number 8
clean, full of info, qualitative as well as quantitative
Hi,
I Like 4 chart in above as per the following ratings:-
no 1# -> 14***
no 2# -> 7***
no 3 # -> 8**
no 4# -> 1.3**
I will be greateful if someone can send me the process of making all above 4 charts.
Virender
[...] Budget vs. Actual Values in Charts – 14 more options [...]
[...] Budget vs. Actual – 14 charting options [...]
Does anyone know what type of chart #6 is (chart name?)? Also, how do I create this is Excel 2007?
@Shazbot
I'd call it a Column and Bar chart, but don't get hungup on names
To make it try this:
Setup the chart as a Clustered Column Chart
Change the Series so there is 100% overlap, ie: One column is in front of the other
Change the Budget series to a line chart
Set the line color to none
Set the marker style to a Flat Line
Change the marker width to make it the same width as the bar
Change colors and other chart properties to suit
Does anyone have an idea on how to create chart #1?
Thanks
Caroline, please see the german page: http://www.hichert.com/de/software/exceldiagramme/55
there you can find the original example for nr1.
best regards,
stefan
Caroline
This is a Clustered Stacked Column Chart
Which has the column under the Shortfall/Excess colored the same as the Budget
Have a look here
http://chandoo.org/forums/topic/question-about-budget-v-actual
&
http://peltiertech.com/WordPress/clustered-stacked-column-charts/
Hi,
Is it possible to get the source files like the other visualisation challenge (on sales).
Thanks,
Vijay
Dear Chandoo,
I discovered your site by pure chance and I am really thrilled about it and I am learning a lot.
Is it possible to post the source file for this visualisation challenge?
Thanks,
Vijay
[...] Budget vs. Actual Charts in Excel [...]
Dear Chandoo,
How do I create Chart #10 (comparing Budget vs Actual Performaces) by cost center by quarter without the cumulative performance. Do you have an actual example that I could use?
Thanks,
Greg
HI
Does anyone can help me to a to create chart #7? I'm beginer in excel , I started to work two weeks ago and my boss ask me to follow the budget/actual until the end of the year.
SO I really need your help.
Thanks in advance
p.s Sorry for my english ( i'm french)
@OKI, Greg
I have made a mockup of #7 and #10
It is available at:
http://chandoo.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/Bud-Act-visualizaion-challenge-7+10..xlsx
#10 is a straight, Pivot Chart/Table but the data has been rearranged to get it into the pivot table
#7 is 2 charts, being a simple Bar Chart and a Scatter Chart with 100% Error Bars
I have used Named Formulas for the two charts.
HELLO Hui
Thanks you very much for your hepl , i really appreciate
Have I nice week
Hi,
I was wondering how can you replicated chart 1.3? The bars looked like there overlapped on two different axis?
Tony
I think 1 & 3 are good.
Hi Chandoo,
Please can you provide a link of the excel sheet for 1. Chart "3 colors and everything is clear"
I would like to drill into the spreadsheet and learn the secrets as how the chart was made.
Many thanks,
Sawan
@Sawan
It is probably 12 seperate charts, I will assume snapped to the underlying cells to ensure they are the same size
The left 3 Charts have a vertical Axis
The bottom 4 Charts have a horizontal Axis
The remainder have no axis
The remaining text maynot be part of the charts but is probably cell content
Saludos,
Como puedo descargar estos maravillosos ejemplos para estudiarlos y analizarlos deseo aprender a realizar este tipo de graficas en Excel.
Gracias,
Dear Chandoo and Hui,
Please would you help me (step by step if possible) to create Chart #8?
Many thanks in advance!
Dear Chandoo,
I think chart #8 is really great. Would really appreciate if you can show basic step to create it.
Thanks 🙂
Hi all,
Is there any step by step tutorial to recreate the the chart #1 please?
Would really appreciate if someone could show me how it done.
Regards
Sawan
Can someone tell me how do you create chart number 2? Thanks!
Am I the only one that can not display any of the images? Would love to take a look at these. This is the ONLY page on the whole website I have had this issue with. 🙁
Dear All,
how can i create chart # 7? is there any link where i can subscribe to your website by paying a certain amount. i want to learn some good excel techniques.
please let me know.
Cant see the images 🙁
Where can I find the link to download some of the above charts?? these are extremely usefull chart and would like to utilize the same.
Waiting for the reply.
Thanks..
I am interested for # 1,6,7,8,9,10,11 its very exciting for me .
Hi,
Just wanted to check, is there any possibility that pivot table or drop down work in power point?
Regards
Satyapal
@Satyapal... you can only use static images or slide animations in Power Point. Not features like pivot tables or drop downs. However, you can embed the entire workbook (or sheet) in a presentation. When clicked this will just open Excel so your users can play with the data.
Is there any instalment kind of facility available for joining the online course of Rs.12000/-.
Regards
Ramesh N
Hi,
I badly want to replicate #10. Can someone help me.. I've checked google to help but I can't figure out how to add the total 🙁
Regards,
Tim