This is a guest post written by Paramdeep from Pristine. Chandoo.org is partnering with Pristine to bring an excel financial modeling online training program for you.
This is Part 6 of 6 on Financial Modeling using Excel
In this tutorial we are going to learn how to build assumptions & input sheets in our excel financial model. The 6 parts of this tutorial are,
- Introduction to Financial Modeling
- Building a layout for Project Evaluation Model – Best practices
- Building Inputs and Assumptions Sheet
- Building Projections for Project Evaluation
- Modeling the Cash Flow Statement and Projections
- Putting it all together – Final Project Evaluation Model
- Join our Financial Modeling Classes
I am sorry for the slight delay in the post. Things have been very hectic for the last few weeks as we were just completing our training on Financial Modeling in Excel – Real Estate (RE) sector for JP Morgan. The real estate valuation is very similar to the project evaluation that we are doing for the simple reason:
- Project evaluation and real estate valuation are limited duration projects (If you intend to sell the RE project in near future) unlike general companies (which are an on-going concern)
- For both these the timing of the cash is very important. A delay in the timing might appear to be ok for the developer, but the investor’s calculations (typically IRR) go for a toss
In India most of the RE developers are businessmen, who are concerned about the cash that the project generates. They are not really too bothered if they receive it in April or September (After all they are getting the cash). But the investors are really bothered by these delays – Some PE investors have a limited period investment horizon and some are too concerned about the IRR generated by the project. As we figured out in our class, Real estate projects are very sensitive to delays in cash generation! Excel is a great tool to show this effect in a matter of 30 secs (Use XIRR and data-tables). Maybe I will write about this functionality in one of my posts later!
For the time being lets come back to our project.
What is time value of money?
Let me start with a very simple to understand example.
- If you invest $100 in bank today, what would be its value 1 year down the line (assuming 10% interest rate)?
- The value should be 100*(1+10%) = $ 110.
- Now if you keep this invested for another year, what would be its value 2 years down the line?
- The value should be 110*(1+10%) = $ 121. I can also write it as 110*(1+10%)^2
- Similarly if you keep invested for 10 years, the value would be 110 * (1+10%)^10
This is the simple concept of compounding.
The inverse of this concept (What if you wanted $110 after 1 year, or 110*(1+10%)^10 after 10 years), how much should you invest today, is called discounting. Clearly $100 today is worth $110 a year after and $121 two years hence.
If I have more than 1 cash flows, I can discount them depending on the time duration and if I sum them all, its called Net Present Value (NPV) of all cash flows. We would take the outflows as Negative Cash and inflows as Positive Cash.
In excel, you can either discount all cash flows or calculate the NPV of the project by using the function =NPV(Discount Rate, Cash)
What is the rate on which money should be discounted?
When equity investors invest, they take greater risk as compared to banks lending money. Obviously their expectation of return would be higher. In some cases, the equity investor might have a return figure in mind (Based on the risk I am taking, I would like to have Min. 15% return on my invested money).
Sometimes, this expected return can be calculated by using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). What this states is very simple – Equity investors want a premium apart from the risk free rate (Lets call this expectation of equity investors as Re) . So there are two parts to the return expectation:
Re = Risk Free + Premium apart from Risk free
Now this premium depends on how much risk I am taking (Typically measured with respect to the volatility in returns with respect to the benchmark index). So I say:
Re = Risk Free + Beta * (Market Returns – Risk Free Returns)
The beta measures the movement of your returns with respect to market returns.
Now apart from the equity investors, there would be some debt in the project. Typically debt holders expect a lower return (Lets call it Rd).
The overall expectation of return from the project is the weighted average of these returns, Re and Rd.
To create this switch in the model, I have used data-validation (so that the user can just input one of these options)
To create such a drop down, use data validation – list option in excel
Internal Rate of Return
The same concept can be viewed from a return angle as well. If I can calculate a discount rate that makes the present value of the expected cash inflows just equal to the initial cost of the project, then that rate would be sort of a break even rate for me (Considering the time value of money). This rate is called the Internal rate of return (IRR).
Many investors have a certain hurdle IRR in mind and if the project is generating an IRR less than the hurdle IRR, they would not invest in the project.
To calculate IRR, there is no analytical solution possible. You can use the excel function =IRR(Cash) to get the IRR of the cash flows.
Making a decision in our case
First let me summarize the decision criteria for you. I would invest in the project based on the following conditions:
NPV Rule:
- If NPV > 0: The project may be accepted (Please note that positive NPV is not a sufficient condition)
- If NPV = 0: The investor should be indifferent
- If NPV < 0: The project must not be accepted (Please note that positive NPV is a necessary condition)
Please note that sometimes people might decide to take on the project even though the NPV is negative!
IRR Decision Rule
- If IRR > the required rate of return, accept the project
- If IRR < the required rate of return, reject the project
In our case, we are getting the NPV to be 21 and an IRR to be 12%. In this case it’s a borderline case and my feeling is that Mr. Samar would invest in the project (After all Mohit is his son!!) J.
Download Project Valuation Templates
I have created a template for you, where the subheadings are given and you have to link the model to get the cash numbers! You can download the same from here:
Project Valuation Template – Blank
You can go through the case and fill in the yellow boxes. I also recommend that you try to create this structure on your own (so that you get a hang of what information is to be recorded).
Also you can download this filled template and check, if the information you recorded, matches mine or not! 😉
Project Valuation Template – Solution
I am just doing that for the single sheet model and recommend that you do the same for multi-sheet model as a homework problem. If you face any issue, post your excel with the exact problem and we can discuss the way to move forward.
Next Steps
We are not done with a basic model for evaluation of a project. There are other nuances that we could not tackle (Given the time and space constraint) – What if the cash does not come at year end, what could be the scenarios in which this project is not a viable project, what can be done to make the project more interesting, etc. I do hope that you found the posts interesting and look forward to your comments and suggestions!
Read previous part of this series – Modeling Cash-flow projections
How do you make project investment decisions?
We are very eager to learn from your experience and know your ideas. What methods of valuation do you use? How do you model them? Share using comments.
Join our Financial Modeling Classes:
Chandoo.org is partnering with Pristine to bring an online financial modeling training program for you. Click here to learn more about our financial modeling class & join.
Added by Chandoo:
Thank you Paramdeep & Pristine:
Many thanks to Paramdeep and Pristine for making this happen. I am really enjoying this series and learning a lot of valuable tricks about financial modeling.
If you like this series, say thanks to Paramdeep. I am sure he can take any amount of appreciation without choking.
Pristine is an awesome training institute for CFA, PRIMA, GARP etc. They have trained folks at HSBC, BoA etc. Chandoo.org is partnering with Pristine to bring an excel financial modeling online training program for you.
36 Responses to “Visualizing Financial Metrics – 30 Alternatives”
Although I am one of the contestants, I must wholeheartedly admit that the Dashboard of Chandeep is the best of all. It's design, colors, message-conveying is the greatest. My regards!
I would like to learn how Chandeep highlighted the graph when he made a selection on the slicer.
Any links to previous posts perhaps where this was covered by Chandoo?
Thank You
Ahmad
Dashboard from Abhay simply rocks. To the point and conveys the intended message even for a novice.
Infographic by Pinank - is looking good
I have also contributed to this contest. I am really inspired by various entries in above post. Based on following parameters i would like to rate these:
1. Explanatory - Whether dashboard will be used to explain certain thing or mention a story. This type of dashboard will be static.
2. Exploratory - Here user would like to interact more with the dashboard to extract the relevant story or meaning which is not apparent. Hence, this type dashboard needs to have more interactivity.
3. Scalability - If new or more data can be added to dashboard and still the functionality will work. If user wants to add more companies, years, etc. will it work.
Based on above criteria I would rate following entries as top ones:
1. Explanatory - by Pinank
2. Exploratory - by Chandeep
3. Scalability - In most of the entries additional work would be required to include more data except for mine. new years or companies can be easily added and analysed in chart by me.
These entries are really inspiring i will definitely use it to revise my dashboard.
Abhay's dashboard is good however, if Chandeep can go with the trend analysis Abhay has done (line graphs), then maybe Chandeep's dashboard can excel.
And now I'm angry that I haven't noticed contest announcement earlier and I've sent what I've sent... Building a dashoboard was supposed to be my goal but lack of time forced me to sent sth simplier and now I can see how big mistake it was (when it comes to fighting a competition like this). Nice work guys! It's realy inspiring! Even less advanced works are intresting because of different task approach. So wance again: thanks 🙂
If I had to choose the best ones (IMHO) I would go for William and Edouard as a second place (for both). Despite some weak sides (like label errors or "work place" next to a final chart) they meet my sense of clear data visualisation and contain intresting interactive elements.
The best entry is definitly Chandeep's. Although there was some failing with automatical comenting feature (#arg! in my Excel'10) it's full of advanced dashboarding tricks which makes it easy to read. Furthermore, as one of the few he finished(?) his project - it opens in a "secured mode", with no place to mess anything, no data trash - just choose, point and read/print.
It all deserves to get the Grand Prize!
and BTW: when can we expect another contest? 🙂
Big round of applause to everyone who participated. I'm amazed at the creativity of our community. 🙂
My vote would be for Chandeep, MF Wong, and Miguel.
I have not contributed, but have read this post with a lot of interest. I would like to congratulate all participants for there work & inventiveness.
My #1 spot goes to Gerald for showing all the data in 1 graph & to have still kept it simple & readable.
I would give a prize for innovation to Pinank for the use of icons.
Great to see so much creativity.
I have not contributed also, but have wait his post for a long time (because I have the same kind of issue in my "daily life").
My top 3 is the following :
- Pinank for the effeiciency and for the style
- Arnaud for the calculation behind the chart
- Miguel for the elegant business oriented dashboard
All the entries look very good. However I feel Pinanks entry seems the best as it is very explanatory with good innovative thoughts.
Hi all,
Some brilliant dashboard and interactive entries - really nice stuff and lots of clever tricks.
However, given that the initial question was "Need to quickly visualize 3 variables ( Company, years, Financials) in a single […] chart", unfortunately I don't think any dashboards - as cool as they are - really answer that question. The interactives also assume that this will be opened in Excel rather than seen in a printed hand-out, which essentially means you'd need multiple charts to show all the variables or be limited to a computer screen. Even Chandoo's initial panel chart approach - which is static, and also very simple and clean - is not really a 'single chart'. Furthermore, most of the interactives don't actually show all variables at once but rather slice the data into more manageable chunks, which is not staying true to the original brief.
So, in light of the above, I'd vote for Gerald in first place, Edwin in second and finally my third chart option in third place (yes, I know, voting for yourself is poor form but unfortunately I think the original question disqualifies most of the entries).
Anyway, a fun competition and thanks for following up on this Chandoo.
I am once again in awe of the submittals to a Chandoo contest. The results are so impressive. I have been trying to build nice dashboards for years and take so many courses, but I don't seem to have the eye for design. The color choices, fonts and chart choices are so important and I'm amazed at how some people really have a great talent for making the best selections.
It's nice to have such quality inspiration!
I saw Chandeep's entry on his website and I must say that I was very impressed by it. Simply loved it. Somewhat makes it difficult to keep an open mind towards the other entries.
My ranking:
1. Chandeep for its completeness as dashboard.
2. MF Wong/Miguel for "simple" but smart graphs.
3. Pinank's entry looks like a page from a glossy magazine.
During scrolling I stopped at Chirayu's entry: easy to the eye.
But honestly congrats too all for having the balls to participate and thank you for sharing your creativity!! Hat's off to you.
Miguel, MF Wong, and Pinank.
Thanks to Chandoo and everyone who contributed for the great ideas.
Hi,
I personally liked the dashboard of:
1. Chandeep - His dashboard is clear, crisp and informative, his color combination and design is awesome, also he has shared few details like operating leverage plus he has added few comments. In totality, its a complete packaged dashboard.
2. Miguel - His dashboard is simple and all the information is visible in one shot.
It's very interesting looking through these - you can definitely tell who's done courses in dashboard design and with whom!
I particularly liked Pawels 'sperm chart' 😉 ... squint your eyes - you'll see what I mean). each of the charts or dashboards are put together well - but I agree with Elchin on this one - Chandeeps dashboard set 'tells a story' of the data. Student of Mr Few??
Without a doubt, Chandeep deserves #1. #2 goes to Abhay, and #3 to Pinhank, for the great presentation style if nothing else.
MF Wong
Do not apologize for any delay! Moving from one town to the next only 10 miles away is tough enough - let alone a family moving from one country to another!
THANK YOU for this excellent post!
As one of the participants, I have been looking forward to this post for long. But totally understood the reason of delay, so never mind! Hope all is well in NZ.
Thank you very much to those who like my chart! 🙂
Also thanks Chandoo for suggesting a name for it "Container Chart", which I have never thought about.
Personally I like the infographic by Pinank. Very outstanding design and use of icons. My two-cent worth: Just the lower part of "Yearly Trend" is actually good enough to answer the question, isn't it? 😉
Cheers,
What an outburst of creativity!
Vote for Chandeep and Pinank!
Agreed!
Awesome dashboards
Infographic by Pinank is awesome
Thank you so much for sharing!! i learn so much from these posts
Highly appreciated
Ahmad
South Africa
Fantastic responses from all the contestants. Some really great ideas. I'm inspired and will adapt some of these to my own dashboard work. Thanks for hosting such a great contest!!
Thank you for sharing this valuable resources !!!
I have only a couple of question that wasn't able to solve regarding data-origin.
Nowadays I have the data coming from a "current" situation from a big database containing all kind purchase-orders information of many different projects. I can calculate the current status of each project investments, but I am not able to track automatically the progress of it month to month or week to week by freezing the calculated metrics on each date. This would let me calculate new graphs and the speed of investments execution.
My question would be, if it is possible to calculate something with an excel formula and automatically freeze this values in a new row or new column. I guess that right now, Basic is the only way, but I guess that there could be a function to copy-a-range, insert-range-as-value-only as a new row or a new column or display everything down or left.
This would preserve the excel formulas defined, and add new data, everytime that it is re-calculated.
Any idea?
Great post , loved all chart representation. Congratulations to all participants and winners.
I need updates to this article.
I didn't even realize this got posted. Came across it today. Thanks
Fantastic post but I was wondering if you could write
a litte more on this subject? I'd be very thankful if you could elaborate a
little bit further. Thank you!
Hi Chandoo,
I comeback after a long time on your Blog. So I saw it lately. Its a brilliant idea.
I like all entries and these are amazing efforts from all participants.
Regards
The report presented by Pinanik is excellent and very innovative. Could be an interesting work for portfolio presentation