This is a guest post written by Paramdeep from Pristine. Chandoo.org is partnering with Pristine to bring an excel financial modeling online training program for you.
This is Part 6 of 6 on Financial Modeling using Excel
In this tutorial we are going to learn how to build assumptions & input sheets in our excel financial model. The 6 parts of this tutorial are,
- Introduction to Financial Modeling
- Building a layout for Project Evaluation Model – Best practices
- Building Inputs and Assumptions Sheet
- Building Projections for Project Evaluation
- Modeling the Cash Flow Statement and Projections
- Putting it all together – Final Project Evaluation Model
- Join our Financial Modeling Classes
I am sorry for the slight delay in the post. Things have been very hectic for the last few weeks as we were just completing our training on Financial Modeling in Excel – Real Estate (RE) sector for JP Morgan. The real estate valuation is very similar to the project evaluation that we are doing for the simple reason:
- Project evaluation and real estate valuation are limited duration projects (If you intend to sell the RE project in near future) unlike general companies (which are an on-going concern)
- For both these the timing of the cash is very important. A delay in the timing might appear to be ok for the developer, but the investor’s calculations (typically IRR) go for a toss
In India most of the RE developers are businessmen, who are concerned about the cash that the project generates. They are not really too bothered if they receive it in April or September (After all they are getting the cash). But the investors are really bothered by these delays – Some PE investors have a limited period investment horizon and some are too concerned about the IRR generated by the project. As we figured out in our class, Real estate projects are very sensitive to delays in cash generation! Excel is a great tool to show this effect in a matter of 30 secs (Use XIRR and data-tables). Maybe I will write about this functionality in one of my posts later!
For the time being lets come back to our project.
What is time value of money?
Let me start with a very simple to understand example.
- If you invest $100 in bank today, what would be its value 1 year down the line (assuming 10% interest rate)?
- The value should be 100*(1+10%) = $ 110.
- Now if you keep this invested for another year, what would be its value 2 years down the line?
- The value should be 110*(1+10%) = $ 121. I can also write it as 110*(1+10%)^2
- Similarly if you keep invested for 10 years, the value would be 110 * (1+10%)^10
This is the simple concept of compounding.
The inverse of this concept (What if you wanted $110 after 1 year, or 110*(1+10%)^10 after 10 years), how much should you invest today, is called discounting. Clearly $100 today is worth $110 a year after and $121 two years hence.
If I have more than 1 cash flows, I can discount them depending on the time duration and if I sum them all, its called Net Present Value (NPV) of all cash flows. We would take the outflows as Negative Cash and inflows as Positive Cash.
In excel, you can either discount all cash flows or calculate the NPV of the project by using the function =NPV(Discount Rate, Cash)
What is the rate on which money should be discounted?
When equity investors invest, they take greater risk as compared to banks lending money. Obviously their expectation of return would be higher. In some cases, the equity investor might have a return figure in mind (Based on the risk I am taking, I would like to have Min. 15% return on my invested money).
Sometimes, this expected return can be calculated by using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). What this states is very simple – Equity investors want a premium apart from the risk free rate (Lets call this expectation of equity investors as Re) . So there are two parts to the return expectation:
Re = Risk Free + Premium apart from Risk free
Now this premium depends on how much risk I am taking (Typically measured with respect to the volatility in returns with respect to the benchmark index). So I say:
Re = Risk Free + Beta * (Market Returns – Risk Free Returns)
The beta measures the movement of your returns with respect to market returns.
Now apart from the equity investors, there would be some debt in the project. Typically debt holders expect a lower return (Lets call it Rd).
The overall expectation of return from the project is the weighted average of these returns, Re and Rd.
To create this switch in the model, I have used data-validation (so that the user can just input one of these options)
To create such a drop down, use data validation – list option in excel
Internal Rate of Return
The same concept can be viewed from a return angle as well. If I can calculate a discount rate that makes the present value of the expected cash inflows just equal to the initial cost of the project, then that rate would be sort of a break even rate for me (Considering the time value of money). This rate is called the Internal rate of return (IRR).
Many investors have a certain hurdle IRR in mind and if the project is generating an IRR less than the hurdle IRR, they would not invest in the project.
To calculate IRR, there is no analytical solution possible. You can use the excel function =IRR(Cash) to get the IRR of the cash flows.
Making a decision in our case
First let me summarize the decision criteria for you. I would invest in the project based on the following conditions:
NPV Rule:
- If NPV > 0: The project may be accepted (Please note that positive NPV is not a sufficient condition)
- If NPV = 0: The investor should be indifferent
- If NPV < 0: The project must not be accepted (Please note that positive NPV is a necessary condition)
Please note that sometimes people might decide to take on the project even though the NPV is negative!
IRR Decision Rule
- If IRR > the required rate of return, accept the project
- If IRR < the required rate of return, reject the project
In our case, we are getting the NPV to be 21 and an IRR to be 12%. In this case it’s a borderline case and my feeling is that Mr. Samar would invest in the project (After all Mohit is his son!!) J.
Download Project Valuation Templates
I have created a template for you, where the subheadings are given and you have to link the model to get the cash numbers! You can download the same from here:
Project Valuation Template – Blank
You can go through the case and fill in the yellow boxes. I also recommend that you try to create this structure on your own (so that you get a hang of what information is to be recorded).
Also you can download this filled template and check, if the information you recorded, matches mine or not! 😉
Project Valuation Template – Solution
I am just doing that for the single sheet model and recommend that you do the same for multi-sheet model as a homework problem. If you face any issue, post your excel with the exact problem and we can discuss the way to move forward.
Next Steps
We are not done with a basic model for evaluation of a project. There are other nuances that we could not tackle (Given the time and space constraint) – What if the cash does not come at year end, what could be the scenarios in which this project is not a viable project, what can be done to make the project more interesting, etc. I do hope that you found the posts interesting and look forward to your comments and suggestions!
Read previous part of this series – Modeling Cash-flow projections
How do you make project investment decisions?
We are very eager to learn from your experience and know your ideas. What methods of valuation do you use? How do you model them? Share using comments.
Join our Financial Modeling Classes:
Chandoo.org is partnering with Pristine to bring an online financial modeling training program for you. Click here to learn more about our financial modeling class & join.
Added by Chandoo:
Thank you Paramdeep & Pristine:
Many thanks to Paramdeep and Pristine for making this happen. I am really enjoying this series and learning a lot of valuable tricks about financial modeling.
If you like this series, say thanks to Paramdeep. I am sure he can take any amount of appreciation without choking.
Pristine is an awesome training institute for CFA, PRIMA, GARP etc. They have trained folks at HSBC, BoA etc. Chandoo.org is partnering with Pristine to bring an excel financial modeling online training program for you.
46 Responses to “6 Best charts to show % progress against goal”
Chandoo, thanks for another interesting post.
One thing I'm missing is the question: What is progress, what does one want to know exactly?
I'm asking the question because I think of progress as not the same as "state of completion." Percentages/bars, etc., as shown above, are great to communicate state of completion, but less so for progress.
That's because project progress is how state of completion *relates to* the resources spent so far. Resources can be things like dollars spent, hours spent or project time passed. For example, 5% would be "good progress" in the first week of a one-year project, but terrible progress in the last week of the project.
The way I prefer to report progress is as a simple line chart with time on the x axis, and maybe a marking for the end point (and maybe an "ideal"/"as planned" line).
If it really must be a single number, you could go a EVA-ish route and divide the current % of completion by the current % of project time passed, which gives you a schedule performance index (1 or bigger than 1 = good; smaller than 1 = bad). For this, your suggested charts should work great!
I avoid 'progress' except where I can objectively assess progress, such as counting bricks laid or concrete poured. For intellectual work, I don't think that its possible to measure progress to completion with any reliability or credibility. I prefer to update forcasts of completion date, because that's where the effect of completion on dependent activities, deliverables and outturn value of the project is felt. This is also referred to as the 0-100 method. An activity is set at 0 complete until its actually finished, when it is set at 100% complete.
Hi Chandoo,
Great post! I have a preference towards thermometer charts too mainly because of the target/actual comparison.
Just an FYI...seems like the the screen shot for the pies #4 are under the #5 heading. Also the pies conditional formatting is something that doesn't accurately portray completion since the pies are segmented into quarters.
AND also a little trivia...those "pies" are called Harvey Balls, named after Harvey Poppel...
Chandoo,
I wonder. Is there a trick to unzipping your files?
I always seem to end up with a series of XML files rather than an XLSX.
Thanks a lot. 🙂
Eric~
Hi Chandoo,
Thank you again for this amazing help you are so resourcefull to make us little bit more amazing everyday.
When I click on the link on the page "http://img.chandoo.org/c/best-charts-for-goal-progress-comparison.xlsx" it is always bringing me to a zip file with all XML files without the XLSX file. I tried with mozilla and IE.
Thank you
[…] http://chandoo.org/wp/2014/03/10/best-charts-to-show-progress/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=… […]
@All having trouble with download file.
1. Download the file.
2. Rename the extension as .xlsx
3. Double click or open it in Excel
Doesn't make any difference Chandoo, still end up with a zip file full of xml related files/folders
@Ian H
Download the zipped file and rename it to *.xlsx
where * is the filename
ps: Great name!
Many thanks for your help Hui but not sure why you are repeating what Chadoo said and which I first posted to because it didn't work for me. I did as he said and it didn't work, hence my post.
Chandoo says:
March 11, 2014 at 1:52 am
@All having trouble with download file.
1. Download the file.
2. Rename the extension as .xlsx
3. Double click or open it in Excel
Also, please note that we are investigating an issue with our webserver settings that may be causing this behavior. Sorry for the inconvenience. I am hoping to get this fixed in next 48 hours.
I used thermometer chart & conditional formatting using traffic lights. I just recently completed a dashboard I hope you can take a look but don't know where to send it. Thanks.
The in-cell bar charts is very interesting. This is not to be used as one can easly do manipulations by changing fonts/ font size etc
Hi..this is really helpful..
but I hve one quick ques..is it possible to hve conditional formating for chart graph based on text value and not the numbers..if I take your example project one bar should be red...if data is project 2 then it should be blue..basically we mke chart based on countries n each countries are assigned specific color...so I want a way where I can use conditionsl formating and not do it manaually each month.
You can set up conditional formatting rules to do this.
See this... it may help
http://chandoo.org/wp/2010/04/01/incell-panel-chart/
Hi Chandoo,
Great article and will be very useful.
One question - is it possible to have in-cell bar chart and the percentage complete (similar to icons)?
Try something like :
=CONCATENER(REPT("|";A1*100);REPT(" ";25-A1*25);"|")
it's quite nice
Hi Chandoo,
I am a great fan of you since i stumbled upon your blog. Your blog is very informative and insightful. I liked the way you presented the 5 steps using thermometer chart. I was very much inspired by that and tried to make my own version with 20 tasks to complete. On and after 17th step it was going downward. So I wanted to ask you that is there any limitation to thermometer chart
[…] shows us the 6 best charts to use, when you want to show your progress against a goal. There’s a sample file to download, so you can experiment on your […]
Is there any xhart is available which can show achivement percentage it may 80% or 120% means more an set target.?
Hi Chandoo,
Love your site. I have a small question regarding plotting data that contains ranking. I have 2 fields - Country, Rank. Note that i don't have the absolute values from which the rank has been calculated. So what is the best way of showing this on a graph given only the above 2 fields. Appreciate it
Regds,
Ross
@Ross
I would assign a set of simple numeric values to your ranks
Even a simple 1 to 10 makes plotting relativities easy
Dear Chandoo Sir,
Really awesome post.
Thanks.
Vignesh.V
We can always rely on Chandoo to explain to us clearly things that perhaps we already knew but weren't putting into practice the best way.
A limit I never liked about data bars was that they are monochrome - one colour for positive values, one colour for negative. So a couple of weeks ago I sat down to figure out a workaround. If anyone's interested...
http://digimac.wordpress.com/2014/06/29/multicoloured-data-bars-in-excel/
Epic fail on my part! After three months I just found out that what worked on my machine, didn't work on others.
Problem solved, more functions added.
The link above at
To hide them use ;;; custom cell formatting code (how to).
appears to be incorrect. However, using the downloaded file and selecting a cell(s) from that example provides the easy answer.
I wondered if the pies could have a color other than black and white (which, of course, would raise the color-blindness issue that you referred to with the traffic lights example).
Hi Chandoo!
Thanks for the informative post!
I have managed to understand and replicate all of the progress graphs except one, the thermo bar. I read up on the tutorial of how to create them, and I understand almost everything about the look and use of the bar, but one problem I am having is that I cannot seem to "center" the bar into the cell like you did. The reason being that even though the highest input (progress) percent is 100%, the program automatically puts in another 20%, so instead of 100% stopping at the end of the graph, it stops 20% short and I have a huge space at the end because of it.
How did you counter that problem? I have been trying for hours to fix it
@Aden
Set the Axis limits to Minimum 0 and maximum 1
Thanks. I started running a project recently, and I found your charts to be really helpful in tracking it's progress. I'm glad I found your page.
Hi Chandoo!
Great stuff for my customized project moving forward. However, when I use the blue block bars, the %ages spark up to smt like 5000% and cannot lower them nor scale them. If I input manually such as 50% without formatting a column, the bar for 50% e.g., will fill the cell completely, so that's kind of odd... what to do?
Thanks!
I guess I have the same problem. When I put 50 and click on the percentage, it is giving me 500%. Can someone help us on this. Thanks in advance
[…] http://chandoo.org/wp/2014/03/10/best-charts-to-show-progress/ […]
Hey,
Thank you for making this page. I do have one problem with the thermo graphs. Whenever I try to drag the graphs from one cell to the cell beneath it, the data remains selected on the former.
For example, if I had a thermo with a target number in A1 and an actual number in B1 with my thermo in C1, when I drag my thermo into C2, C3, etc., all of the graphs show the results from A1 and B1.
Is there a way to have these graphs update automatically as I will be regularly working in an excel file with hundred of entries?
P.S. I removed the $ symbols from 'Select Data', but that did not fix the problem.
Thanks again!
@Lisa
Not sure but it sounds like the new cells have Conditional formats applied
Select just the new cells
Select Conditional formatting, Clear Rules, Clear Rules from selected Cells
Hi Chandoo.
I am charting on some defaulter data where greater than zero is not desirable. Problem is that I have to highlight zero as target and anything above as undesirable. Seek your help
Hi Chandoo
Great post!
But I am wondering why bullet chart is not on this list. Is there a reason for its absence?
Thank you for these instructions. The bonus 5 Step Progress Meter you included would be perfect for my project. Where can I find the instructions?
Hi,
Do you know of any simple way to reduce the Data Bars padding so that they fit within the cells?
Thanks and great posy!
Regards
Appreciating the dedication you put into your website and in depth information you
provide. It's good to come across a blog every once in a while that isn't the same out of date rehashed information. Wonderful
read! I've bookmarked your site and I'm including your
RSS feeds to my Google account.
With #1 and #2, how would you also apply a red amber green to the bars (is it possible within chart formatting or would you need to utilise CF)?
I'm thinking of an in cell bar of some kind which will show against a known goal end date how far along with the goal you are (this is to be used for 'how many of the X number of people that I need to train in X timeframe, have been trained and therefore which of each training group is on track to complete on time or falling behind'.
So there would be knowns of number of people, target end date but I'd want it to reflect accurately as some groups of trainees might only have 50 in so their 50% done would be different to a group of trainees where their group had 200 people in it - but 50% would still be the same. Somewhere there'd probably need to be something which noted that there was a different volume of trainees so it could but the remaining effort to train people into context?
Hope that makes some kind of sense, I could be waffling!
[…] charts. Its got things like “Best Charts to Compare Actuals vs Targets” and “Best charts to show progress“. I love me some charts […]
Thanks a lot my dear.
very Useful it for me.
Another great post, thanks for sharing.
Chandoo, I am just starting an Excel class, and everything in the class is new to me. I am learning how to use all of these great charts but don't know what they are all used for. Thank you for your post and I think I will be able to use this down the road throughout my business career
in the above charts , Chart #2: Conditional Formatting Data Bars
->Assume if we have completed 35% of work it is showing in Blue color ,in the same cell remaining 65% of work should shows in some color , how to show?
Hi Sir,
This is Rachit and I am a big fan of you and your work. This is to request you please make a video for Beverages Sales performance data analysis in Excel.
Regards,