This is a guest post written by Paramdeep from Pristine. Chandoo.org is partnering with Pristine to bring an excel financial modeling online training program for you.
This is Part 6 of 6 on Financial Modeling using Excel
In this tutorial we are going to learn how to build assumptions & input sheets in our excel financial model. The 6 parts of this tutorial are,
- Introduction to Financial Modeling
- Building a layout for Project Evaluation Model – Best practices
- Building Inputs and Assumptions Sheet
- Building Projections for Project Evaluation
- Modeling the Cash Flow Statement and Projections
- Putting it all together – Final Project Evaluation Model
- Join our Financial Modeling Classes
I am sorry for the slight delay in the post. Things have been very hectic for the last few weeks as we were just completing our training on Financial Modeling in Excel – Real Estate (RE) sector for JP Morgan. The real estate valuation is very similar to the project evaluation that we are doing for the simple reason:
- Project evaluation and real estate valuation are limited duration projects (If you intend to sell the RE project in near future) unlike general companies (which are an on-going concern)
- For both these the timing of the cash is very important. A delay in the timing might appear to be ok for the developer, but the investor’s calculations (typically IRR) go for a toss
In India most of the RE developers are businessmen, who are concerned about the cash that the project generates. They are not really too bothered if they receive it in April or September (After all they are getting the cash). But the investors are really bothered by these delays – Some PE investors have a limited period investment horizon and some are too concerned about the IRR generated by the project. As we figured out in our class, Real estate projects are very sensitive to delays in cash generation! Excel is a great tool to show this effect in a matter of 30 secs (Use XIRR and data-tables). Maybe I will write about this functionality in one of my posts later!
For the time being lets come back to our project.
What is time value of money?
Let me start with a very simple to understand example.
- If you invest $100 in bank today, what would be its value 1 year down the line (assuming 10% interest rate)?
- The value should be 100*(1+10%) = $ 110.
- Now if you keep this invested for another year, what would be its value 2 years down the line?
- The value should be 110*(1+10%) = $ 121. I can also write it as 110*(1+10%)^2
- Similarly if you keep invested for 10 years, the value would be 110 * (1+10%)^10
This is the simple concept of compounding.
The inverse of this concept (What if you wanted $110 after 1 year, or 110*(1+10%)^10 after 10 years), how much should you invest today, is called discounting. Clearly $100 today is worth $110 a year after and $121 two years hence.
If I have more than 1 cash flows, I can discount them depending on the time duration and if I sum them all, its called Net Present Value (NPV) of all cash flows. We would take the outflows as Negative Cash and inflows as Positive Cash.
In excel, you can either discount all cash flows or calculate the NPV of the project by using the function =NPV(Discount Rate, Cash)
What is the rate on which money should be discounted?
When equity investors invest, they take greater risk as compared to banks lending money. Obviously their expectation of return would be higher. In some cases, the equity investor might have a return figure in mind (Based on the risk I am taking, I would like to have Min. 15% return on my invested money).
Sometimes, this expected return can be calculated by using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). What this states is very simple – Equity investors want a premium apart from the risk free rate (Lets call this expectation of equity investors as Re) . So there are two parts to the return expectation:
Re = Risk Free + Premium apart from Risk free
Now this premium depends on how much risk I am taking (Typically measured with respect to the volatility in returns with respect to the benchmark index). So I say:
Re = Risk Free + Beta * (Market Returns – Risk Free Returns)
The beta measures the movement of your returns with respect to market returns.
Now apart from the equity investors, there would be some debt in the project. Typically debt holders expect a lower return (Lets call it Rd).
The overall expectation of return from the project is the weighted average of these returns, Re and Rd.
To create this switch in the model, I have used data-validation (so that the user can just input one of these options)
To create such a drop down, use data validation – list option in excel
Internal Rate of Return
The same concept can be viewed from a return angle as well. If I can calculate a discount rate that makes the present value of the expected cash inflows just equal to the initial cost of the project, then that rate would be sort of a break even rate for me (Considering the time value of money). This rate is called the Internal rate of return (IRR).
Many investors have a certain hurdle IRR in mind and if the project is generating an IRR less than the hurdle IRR, they would not invest in the project.
To calculate IRR, there is no analytical solution possible. You can use the excel function =IRR(Cash) to get the IRR of the cash flows.
Making a decision in our case
First let me summarize the decision criteria for you. I would invest in the project based on the following conditions:
NPV Rule:
- If NPV > 0: The project may be accepted (Please note that positive NPV is not a sufficient condition)
- If NPV = 0: The investor should be indifferent
- If NPV < 0: The project must not be accepted (Please note that positive NPV is a necessary condition)
Please note that sometimes people might decide to take on the project even though the NPV is negative!
IRR Decision Rule
- If IRR > the required rate of return, accept the project
- If IRR < the required rate of return, reject the project
In our case, we are getting the NPV to be 21 and an IRR to be 12%. In this case it’s a borderline case and my feeling is that Mr. Samar would invest in the project (After all Mohit is his son!!) J.
Download Project Valuation Templates
I have created a template for you, where the subheadings are given and you have to link the model to get the cash numbers! You can download the same from here:
Project Valuation Template – Blank
You can go through the case and fill in the yellow boxes. I also recommend that you try to create this structure on your own (so that you get a hang of what information is to be recorded).
Also you can download this filled template and check, if the information you recorded, matches mine or not! 😉
Project Valuation Template – Solution
I am just doing that for the single sheet model and recommend that you do the same for multi-sheet model as a homework problem. If you face any issue, post your excel with the exact problem and we can discuss the way to move forward.
Next Steps
We are not done with a basic model for evaluation of a project. There are other nuances that we could not tackle (Given the time and space constraint) – What if the cash does not come at year end, what could be the scenarios in which this project is not a viable project, what can be done to make the project more interesting, etc. I do hope that you found the posts interesting and look forward to your comments and suggestions!
Read previous part of this series – Modeling Cash-flow projections
How do you make project investment decisions?
We are very eager to learn from your experience and know your ideas. What methods of valuation do you use? How do you model them? Share using comments.
Join our Financial Modeling Classes:
Chandoo.org is partnering with Pristine to bring an online financial modeling training program for you. Click here to learn more about our financial modeling class & join.
Added by Chandoo:
Thank you Paramdeep & Pristine:
Many thanks to Paramdeep and Pristine for making this happen. I am really enjoying this series and learning a lot of valuable tricks about financial modeling.
If you like this series, say thanks to Paramdeep. I am sure he can take any amount of appreciation without choking.
Pristine is an awesome training institute for CFA, PRIMA, GARP etc. They have trained folks at HSBC, BoA etc. Chandoo.org is partnering with Pristine to bring an excel financial modeling online training program for you.
39 Responses to “Make a Quick Thermometer Chart to Compare Targets and Actuals”
You'll probably have some readers insist on bullet charts, which in my experience are no easier to read.
Note on the case where actuals may exceed targets, the target has to be the second series in the chart, not the first, so it appears in front of the actual.
@Jon.. good point. And yes, readers are already saying bullets are the way to go. Atleast @dmgerbino said it on twitter: http://twitter.com/dmgerbino/status/6761754333
But I feel the same as you did. Bullets need orientation to get started and not that easy to construct (here is a tutorial btw... http://chandoo.org/wp/2008/07/21/dashboard-bullet-graphs-excel/ )
When you just have to compare 2 sets of values, a chart like above is good and easy enough.
And yes, thank you for saying that data series order should be correct to show the target on top.
I think bullet charts are a good alternative. I'm not a huge fan of the formatting that you used above where the outline is so thick.
Another option would be to combine a line graph (plan/goal amounts) with the columns (actual) and select the option to remove the line. This leaves just the value (marker), which can be increased in size to leave only a line about the size of the bar. It's an easy and cleaner way to show actual to plan/goal. Does that make sense?
Tony -
I would use columns (or area) for goal, and lines and markers for actual.
What about if you go over the target? The chart doesn't work so well then.
The technique described today is a near bullet chart. As I stated early this morning on Twitter (link: http://bit.ly/4K3yPM ) , I am a fan of Stephen Few's Bullet Graph.
Hubert Urruttia and I started with Charlie Kyd's method, but as Jon Peltier and Chandoo said, they are not easy to contruct. We moved onto prototyping with Fabrice Rimlinger's SPARKLINES FOR EXCEL and now use XLCube's (BonaVista) Micro Chart tool. Both of these tools allow you to create bullet charts just as easy as any Excel chart type.
As far as reading and interpreting them, this chart type has been the easiest for us to present.
There are many chart types. Today's "Make a Quick Thermometer Chart to Compare Targets and Actuals" is fine for a start, but your ultimate goal should be to create Bullet Graphs. AS Stephen Few states in his overview, "The bullet graph was developed to replace the meters and gauges that are often used on dashboards. Its linear and no-frills design provides a rich display of data in a small space, which is essential on a dashboard. Like most meters and gauges, bullet graphs feature a single quantitative measure (for example, year-to-date revenue) along with complementary measures to enrich the meaning of the featured measure. Specifically, bullet graphs support the comparison of the featured measure to one or more related measures (for example, a target or the same measure at some point in the past, such as a year ago) and relate the featured measure to defined quantitative ranges that declare its qualitative state (for example, good, satisfactory, and poor). Its linear design not only gives it a small footprint, but also supports more efficient reading than radial meters."
@dmgerbino
Since @dmgerbino had to bring my name up I guess I should throw in my two cents.
@dmgerbino and I have both implemented Bullet Charts with great success. What is most interesting about this fact is that we have had a harder time implementing Sparklines than Bullet Charts. The reason for this revolves around the simple fact of familiarity. I will explain. People look at a Sparkline and they think it is a really small Line Chart and it is not. People are familiar with Line Charts since they have been around since 1786 when they were created by William Playfair. Bullet Charts on the other hand are different so they almost demand an explanation. Because of this there was a lot of face time that was needed to explain these charts but once people got them they understood the concept. This is similar to when I introduced Cycle Plots http://bit.ly/87ydVG (Thank you @nbrgraphs!) or Horizon Charts http://bit.ly/6PVavj.
Now about the Thermometer Charts… The first thing I want to address is Tony Rose’s statement. I totally agree that the outline on the chart is too think. It might come of as being a whole new series or a new variable. What I have done in instances like this is I have created a Bar Graph and Scatter Plot mixture. Then I have turned off the Data Series on the Scatter Plot and turned on the Horrizontal Error Bars on the Scatter Plot. The new horizontal line stands for the Plan and the Bar is the actual. The reason why I find this more useful is because this technique works if you have exceeded plan. Actually, I do not understand how Chandoo’s method would display the data if Plan is surpassed.
This reminds me of another blog post that @dmgerbino, @Jon_Peltier, and myself commented on over a year ago. http://bit.ly/PNdO Actually, I talk about similar things in regards to familiarity to charting techniques.
- @hubert_urruttia
[...] we have a post on using thermometer charts to quickly compare actual values with targets. Today we follow up the post with 10 charting ideas you can use to compare actual values with [...]
Hi Chandoo
How do I increase the width of the bar chart and also make the long axis labels come in the same line?
Thank you,
Rajiv
@Rajiv
Select the outer part of the chart "Chart Area" and note the cursor will change to arrows
drag the edges to what ever size you want
You can hold the Alt key as you drag and the chart will snap to the cell boundaries
Now click on the chart area inside the chart "Plot Area" and note that a box with small circles appears around it
drag the circles on the edge of that box to suit
You can hold the Alt key as you drag and the chart will snap to the cell boundaries
@ Hui
Thank you for your comments. But my question was not for the "Plot Area" instead I wanted to know about how should I increase the width of the individual bar charts because with my data all the individual bars are coming to be thin and I want to make them appear broader.
Thank You
@Rajiv
Right click on the Series you want to change and select Format Data Series
Under Series Options goto Gap Width and decrease it to suit
[...] Make a Quick Thermo-meter Chart using Excel [...]
Thank you for the great chart and explanation!
How do I show two amounts (Signed Revenue and Pipeline) as stacked within the Target amount?
@CL... you can use stacked column charts and follow the same technique to get this. See attached file for an example - http://img.chandoo.org/playground/thermo-meter-with-additional-details.xlsx
Chandoo - thanks for the quick response! What if I want the data label for the pipeline to be the actual pipeline value, not the signed rev + pipeline value? i.e. 15 instead of 55
Thanks!
How would i do this in excel 2003?
[...] Thermo-meter charts are very good to show how actual value compares with target (or budget). But how can we add another point for say Last Year value to the chart with out cluttering it. [...]
Hi Guys,
As Matt said,
"What if you if you go over the target?"
Is there a way to make it change color? or at least to show what the target was?
I am planning to use this with a "Forecasted vs Real" production chart but I do not know how to show overproduction.
Any clue?
Thanks
How do I do this if I have 2 bars I want side-by-side? ie 2012 Mean with 2012 benchmark overlapping and then 2013 mean with 2013 benchmark overlapping? I want the 2012 and 2012 mean bars sie by side to compare multiple categories.
Sorry, I meant to say the 2012 and 2013 mean bars side by side
I have a problem in that my PM wants a chart that shows a stacked column (Labor and Expense) and then have the overall buget shown as a thermo.
Everytime I try to do this, I either end up with all three being stacked or all of them being seperated.
Help?
Or if someone knows how to only outline the top and sides of a chart series....then I would have this solved. (Make a stacked column with labor, expenses, and remaining budget, then clear the fill and outline only the top and sides.) I just can't figure out how to do that/ not sure if excel will let me only outline part of a chart series.
[...] Thermometer chart to show budget vs. actual performance [...]
Your home is valueble for me. Thanks!...
I've created the thermometer chart as the Chandoo tutorial described. How do I move my columns closer together? I don't want wider columns; I want to move my narrow columns closer together. Thank you!
Dear Elite members,
could you please let me informed whether we could incorporate color formating in this thermometer approach i.e. if my actual performance is <Min then meter color sud go Red, in between min & target it sud change to Amber & target and above sud change to Green. pls advise. thanks,
I think the only way to do that would be with VBA programming.
@Abhinav
Yes, Simply use a stacked column chart, colored appropriately
Or
You may also want to read about Bullet Charts
@ Hui,
Could you pls demonstrate this with the help of an example.
let's have the below sample data
Actual=12
Min=10
Target=15
Max=20
if Actual>=Min then bar color sud be Red
in between Min & Target= Amber
between target(inclusive) & Max = Green
greater than or equal to Max= Blue
Thanks in advance
Abhi
Great blog post with awesome sample data. I've implemented two of the top "power tips" by changing the colour of the actual values, AND setting Actual to be 40% transparent. Looking good.
[…] easy with these charts. Use them sparingly. As a rule a thermo-meter chart would be better (easy to make, takes less space, scalable) for situations like […]
[…] easy with these charts. Use them sparingly. As a rule a thermo-meter chart would be better (easy to make, takes less space, scalable) for situations like […]
I recently purchased the template bundle and love the ease of use - thank you!
I would like to ask if it is possible to add an important 'block' to the dashboard to illustrate an important status for my executive team; 'billing status'? (ie budget / amount billed) something like that?
Thank you!
@Cheif449.. Thanks for your purchase and kind words.
You can add this easily to the dashboard. Follow below steps.
1. Unprotect the dashboard worksheet.
2. Add a text box (Insert > Drawing Shapes) to the dashboard
3. Put any text inside it as per your need.
4. Format it as needed.
5. Protect the dashboard again.
How do you do this in Excel 2010 - I am not seeing that option in Format data series.
how would we check target and actual sale for multiple years
Select any of the bar, right click and format data series