This is a guest post written by Paramdeep from Pristine. Chandoo.org is partnering with Pristine to bring an excel financial modeling online training program for you.
This is Part 3 of 6 on Financial Modeling using Excel
This is Part 3 of 6 on Financial Modeling using ExcelIn this tutorial we are going to learn how to build assumptions & input sheets in our excel financial model. The 6 parts of this tutorial are,
- Introduction to Financial Modeling
- Building a layout for Project Evaluation Model – Best practices
- Building Inputs and Assumptions Sheet
- Building Projections for Project Evaluation
- Modeling the Cash Flow Statement and Projections
- Putting it all together – Final Project Evaluation Model
- Join our Financial Modeling Classes
First a story: Charlie and Chocolate Factory
Would you invest in my chocolate factory? It is just a $1,000 investment (And I would give you all the chocolate that you want for free!!)! I am going to produce 10,000 chocolates per year, which costs me $ 1,000 and I would be able to sell them for $ 1,010 in the market. Would you invest your money in my project?
You can just do a back of the envelop calculation to figure out that it would take me a hundred years to return back your money (Even if you were to charge no interest).
Believe me – Most of the decisions in finance are as simple as that! 😉 Its just that the numbers are obscure and figuring out the right numbers from the client takes a lot of time!
The first step for any meaningful evaluation is assimilating the facts CORRECTLY. In the world of finance (especially investment banking, equity research, etc.), for most of the analysis work you don’t need to be PHD material or a (ironically!!) researcher. Typically the work that is required to be done (as far as modeling in concerned) is quite routine. The skill that is highly in demand is consistency and an eye for detail.
As a banker your task starts by questioning each and every number that your client is giving you and recording it correctly. For comparisons, you start with ball park (industry) numbers and do some back of the envelop calculations to ascertain the feasibility of the project or the valuation numbers.
Figuring out relevant information
In finance there are two cardinal rules:
- Cash is the king
- Cash today is more important than cash tomorrow
Whatever affects the above two is going to have an impact on the valuation of the firm. So while evaluating any business proposal (or company), you should record all the facts that affect the cash and its timing.
For example, if we were to just pick an instance from the case (download here), which reads as:
I have done a thorough analysis and found out that the minimum initial investment needed in starting such kind of factory would be around USD 400 Mn (which includes the cost of machinery which has depreciation @ 20% every year and would also have a salvage value of 20mn after 10 years) and a starting working capital of $100mn which is 40% of revenue).
Then what is important from valuation perspective is the USD 400 Mn that goes out as investment (If it is all cash). Since it goes out on day 1, it is all the more important.
The depreciation is just an accounting concept (allocation of the huge cash that you invested to different accounting periods). It should have NO impact on the valuation of the project (as it does not affect the cash and also does not affect its timing). But when accountants create P&L, they deduct the depreciation from your EBITDA. So when you start the valuation, you should put that back in the cash available (and hence to record the information on depreciation).
Layout for Assumptions & Inputs
Creating a layout which can help you record the cash and its timing in a structured manner can help you eliminate the possibility of errors in your model. Typically you can categorize the recording of information in the following heads:
-
Initial investment that would be required to start the project (Investment decision)
-
How much of money is locked in the business apart from the plant and machinery (Working capital as investment)
-
How are you going to get your cash back (The operations)
-
How are you going to mix your equity and debt and what are the costs you pay for each
Once you have recorded the relevant information, you should draw out the timing of cash as well to figure out the valuation.
Templates to download
I have created a template for you, where the subheadings are given. You have to read the business case (here) and figure out which numbers go where. I also recommend that you try to create this structure on your own (so that you get a hang of what information is to be recorded).
Download the blank assumptions sheet
Also you can download this filled template and check, if the information you recorded, matches mine or not!
Download the completed assumptions sheet.
I am just doing that for the single sheet model and recommend that you do the same for multi-sheet model as a homework problem. If you face any issue, post your excel with the exact problem and we can discuss the way to move forward.
Next Steps
In the next installment, we would see, how we can calculate the cash that the project is going to earn in each financial period. It would mean using the recorded information and finding the items that contribute to cash change (and that don’t) and also the exact financial period, when that cash would flow in. For maximum benefit from the series, please try to fill it on your own and fill in the other parts of the model as well.
Read previous part of this series – Building a Layout for Valuation – Best Practices
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Please click here to learn more about the program & sign-up.
How do you prepare assumptions sheet?
We are very eager to learn from. Tell us how you go about building assumptions sheet and how you switch between various assumption scenarios. Please share using comments.
Added by Chandoo:
Thank you Paramdeep & Pristine:
Many thanks to Paramdeep and Pristine for making this happen. I am really enjoying this series and learning a lot of valuable tricks about financial modeling.
If you like this series, say thanks to Paramdeep. I am sure he can take any amount of appreciation without choking.
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40 Responses to “Looking up when the data won’t co-operate (case study)”
Nice Trick.. Clever use of cell references
Here is a formula I tried to create:
=SUMPRODUCT(((NOT(ISERROR(SEARCH(L5,B4:H14))))*1),(B5:H15))
It takes care of Caveat #1 (can handle text), but Caveat #2 remains.
In situations like this, I will often use VBA to restructure the data (2 columns: dates and values) on to a new worksheet. I can then use this 'clean' source for data analysis (formula or pivot table).
=SUMPRODUCT(((NOT(ISERROR(SEARCH(L5,B4:H14))))*1),(B5:H15)) and complex formulae in general are all very well but when you come back to them in a few weeks / months time, it is not at all easy to see what they do and what the limitations are.
Hi Chandoo,
I had used this type of cell ref. various times while calculating average.
But for the situation here try below formula . Note this is an array formula and must be confirmed with Ctrl+Shift+Enter.
=SMALL(IF(MMULT((L5=B4:H14)*IF(ISNUMBER(B5:H15),B5:H15),{1;1;1;1;1;1;1}),MMULT((L5=B4:H14)*IF(ISNUMBER(B5:H15),B5:H15),{1;1;1;1;1;1;1})),1)
Regards,
Hi, I think Using SEARCH in here will create a problem say there is a text like SUN and another text SUNLIGHT both result will be added by SUMPRODUCT.
Regards,
Array option.
=SUM(IF(MOD(ROW(B4:B14),2)=MOD(ROW(B4),2),IF(B4:H14=L5,B5:H15)))
Regards
@Elias,
Nice approach.
Although not requested - the formula I suggested closes all possibilities.
Criteria: _____ Value to retrieve:
Date__________ Numeric
Date__________Textual
Textual________Numeric
Textual________Textual
While your formula copes with only the 3 first combinations.
Michael (Micky) Avidan
“Microsoft® Answer” – Wiki author & Forums Moderator
“Microsoft®” MVP – Excel (2009-2015)
ISRAEL
@Michael,
Sorry but I don’t understand your point. I believe the challenge was to return the summary of a given date. What is your really volatile formula doing that mine is not?
Regards
@Elias,
I didn't say that the challenge differs from what you just mentioned/aimed to nor that your formula doesn't provide the requested result.
Please read my previous comment again and focus on the last combination (TEXT / TEXT).
I, myself, always try to provide a global Formula that is capable to handle all sorts of data.
Michael (Micky) Avidan
“Microsoft® Answer” – Wiki author & Forums Moderator
“Microsoft®” MVP – Excel (2009-2015)
ISRAEL
@Michael,
I see your point, but you are missing the below points if you are trying to cover all sorts of data.
What happened if the lookup value does not exist?
Do you want the first, second, summary, concatenation of the values if the look value is repeated?
See they are too many possibilities to be cover with just one formula.
Regards
1) The range: B4:H15 was named: RNG.
2) The following Array Formula was "retrieved from my sleeve" and I hope it can be shorten.
3) The formula seems to take care of BOTH(!) caveats.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
=OFFSET(INDIRECT(ADDRESS(SMALL(IF(RNG=L5,ROW(RNG),""),1),MOD(SMALL(IF(RNG=L5,(ROW(RNG))+COLUMN(RNG)/10),1),1)*10)),1,)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Michael (Micky) Avidan
“Microsoft® Answer” – Wiki author & Forums Moderator
“Microsoft®” MVP – Excel (2009-2015)
ISRAEL
@Michael,
Check what happened with your result if you type 41927 in D5.
Regards
Correct. Didn't predict that.
Will find time to work something out.
Michael (Micky) Avidan
“Microsoft® Answer” – Wiki author & Forums Moderator
“Microsoft®” MVP – Excel (2009-2015)
ISRAEL
@Elias,
Let's hope the following Array Formula "closes all open doors".
Again - it has nothing to do with your formula which works fine as long as the 3 first mentioned combinations are concerned.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
=INDEX(RNG,LARGE(IF(RNG=L5,MOD(ROW(RNG)-1,2)*(ROW(RNG)),""),1)-2,(MOD(SMALL(IF(RNG=L5,(ROW(RNG))+COLUMN(RNG)/10),1),1)*10)-1)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Michael (Micky) Avidan
“Microsoft® Answer” – Wiki author & Forums Moderator
“Microsoft®” MVP – Excel (2009-2015)
ISRAEL
Ok, if you insist. The following will cover all the scenarios you listed. However, I’ll never recommend/use such of formula.
Defined names:
rDat = $B$4:$H$15
rRow =ROW(rDat)-MIN(ROW(rDat))+1
rCol =COLUMN(rDat)-MIN(COLUMN(rDat))+1
rInc =MOD(rRow,2)=MOD(MIN(rRow),2)
L6=INDEX(rDat,MAX(IF(rInc,IF(rDat=L5,rRow)))+1,MAX(IF(rInc,IF(rDat=L5,rCol))))
Array Enter
Regards
@Michael,
unfortunately, your array formula still seems to return wrong results (eg 3-Nov).
If data are organized like in the example, ie. looks like a calendar, the INDEX formula seems quite simple:
=INDEX($B$4:$H$15,ROUNDDOWN((L5-B4)/7,0)*2+2,MOD((L5-B4),7)+1)
Yours is effectively the same as what I just came up with, and I believe this is the optimal answer to this particular problem.
My solution, before I saw yours:
=OFFSET(B5,QUOTIENT(L5-B4,7)*2,MOD(L5-B4,7))
OFFSET will work for an arbitrary list size, but INDEX might be easier to read.
QUOTIENT does the round and division in a single step.
If there's an improvement over Elias's solution then I for one can't see it.
Perhaps a non-CSE version which would also mean that only two references (B4:H14 and B5:H15), as opposed to three (B4, B4:B14 and and B5:H15), would require manually amending should the data range change, i.e.:
=SUMPRODUCT((ISEVEN(ROW(B4:H14)-MIN(ROW(B4:H14)))*(B4:H14=L5)*B5:H15))
I suppose we could make it a single, uniform range reference:
=SUMPRODUCT((ISEVEN(ROW(B4:H14)-MIN(ROW(B4:H14)))*(B4:H14=L5)*OFFSET(B4:H14,1,,,)))
which might be more appropriate should we e.g. wish to use a Defined Name for our range, i.e.:
=SUMPRODUCT((ISEVEN(ROW(Rng)-MIN(ROW(Rng)))*(Rng=L5)*OFFSET(Rng,1,,,)))
though whether that compensates for the extra, volatile function call is something to be debated.
Regards
I have tried something and then my Excel workbooks got shut down. Maybe that was too much?
Anyway here is what I've tried:
=SUMPRODUCT(INDEX(B5:H15;IF(ISEVEN(ROW(B5:H15));ROW(B5:B15)-ROW(B5)+1);{1\2\3\4\5\6\7}))
Guess that was wrong? Would this approach work anyway?
Looking forward to learn something from you Excel Experts.
Sorry, I haven't took notice of XOR LX's answer. I guess that's kind of what I was looking for.
@Michael Avidan
As it stands that is not a very rigorous construction.
You say "I, myself, always try to provide a global Formula that is capable to handle all sorts of data", which is a wonderful philosophy, but isn't it at least as important that we ensure that our formulas are independent of the row and column references of the data range in question, so that, should that range change, we do not have to re-work our solution?
What happens with your formula, for example, if RNG is instead re-located one row down, from B4:H15 to B5:H16?
When a formula is reliant upon the addition/subtraction of certain constants within the formula, which themselves are necessarily dependent upon the specific rows/columns in which the data lies at any given time (e.g. the -1 in MOD(ROW(RNG)-1,2)), then that formula is not a very flexible one.
Hence the reason for my choice of a slightly longer construction:
ROW(B4:H14)-MIN(ROW(B4:H14))
which ensures that this part of the calculation is not dependent upon the precise location of the data range within the worksheet, and so will give correct answers even if that range is re-located.
Regards
{=OFFSET(B4,MAX((B4:H15=L5)*ISODD(ROW(1:12))*ROW(1:12)),MAX((B4:H15=L5)*ISODD(ROW(1:12))*COLUMN(A:G))-1)}
Non-array formula:
=INDEX(B4:H15,SUMPRODUCT((B4:H15=L5)*(ROW(B4:H15)-ROW(B4)+1)*ISODD(ROW(B4:H15)-ROW(B4)+1))+1,SUMPRODUCT((B4:H15=L5)*(COLUMN(B4:H15)-COLUMN(B4)+1)*ISODD(ROW(B4:H15)-ROW(B4)+1)))
Using one range (B4:H15), one reference (B4), one lookup value (L5) and no INDIRECT or OFFSET.
My trial with defined names:
DateRange
=$B$4:$H$4,$B$6:$H$6,$B$8:$H$8,$B$10:$H$10,$B$12:$H$12,$B$14:$H$14
Position
=RANK('lookup problem'!$L$5,DateRange,1)
L6
=OFFSET(B4,ROUNDUP(Position/7,0)*2- 1,IF(MOD(Position,7)=0,6,MOD(Position,7)-1))
I'd probably just run with something like:
=SUMPRODUCT((B4:H14=L5)*(MOD(ROW(B4:H14),2)=MOD(ROW(B4),2))*B5:H15)
...which is basically the same as Elias' but without the IFs
The opposite of elegant but it works...
=INDEX(B4:H15,IFERROR(MATCH(L5,B4:B14,0),0)+IFERROR(MATCH(L5,C4:C14,0),0)+IFERROR(MATCH(L5,D4:D14,0),0)+IFERROR(MATCH(L5,E4:E14,0),0)+IFERROR(MATCH(L5,F4:F14,0),0)+IFERROR(MATCH(L5,G4:G14,0),0)+IFERROR(MATCH(L5,H4:H14,0),0)+1,IFERROR(MATCH(L5,B4:H4,0),0)+IFERROR(MATCH(L5,B6:H6,0),0)+IFERROR(MATCH(L5,B8:H8,0),0)+IFERROR(MATCH(L5,B10:H10,0),0)+IFERROR(MATCH(L5,B12:H12,0),0)+IFERROR(MATCH(L5,B14:H14,0),0))
=INDEX(B4:H15,
IFERROR(MATCH(L5,B4:B14,0),0)+
IFERROR(MATCH(L5,C4:C14,0),0)+
IFERROR(MATCH(L5,D4:D14,0),0)+
IFERROR(MATCH(L5,E4:E14,0),0)+
IFERROR(MATCH(L5,F4:F14,0),0)+
IFERROR(MATCH(L5,G4:G14,0),0)+
IFERROR(MATCH(L5,H4:H14,0),0)+1,
IFERROR(MATCH(L5,B4:H4,0),0)+
IFERROR(MATCH(L5,B6:H6,0),0)+
IFERROR(MATCH(L5,B8:H8,0),0)+
IFERROR(MATCH(L5,B10:H10,0),0)+
IFERROR(MATCH(L5,B12:H12,0),0)+
IFERROR(MATCH(L5,B14:H14,0),0))
Named Range
rownum = SUMPRODUCT(('lookup problem'!$B$4:$H$14='lookup problem'!$L$5)*ROW('lookup problem'!$B$4:$H$14)*ISEVEN(ROW('lookup problem'!$B$4:$H$14)))
Formula
=OFFSET($A$1,rownum,MATCH(L5,INDIRECT("$B"&rownum&":$H"&rownum),0))
How about SUM(IF(B4:H14=L5,B5:H15)) with array..it should work
Sorry, Chandoo, you can't find stuff this way in every possible scenario.
What if 2014-10-01 sales would equal 41.927 ? Which is serial number for 2014-10-15 ? SUMIF would fail to retrive correct answer. And your example data suggest that such number is possible in your table.
It's better not to search through dates and numbers at the same time.
If I'd solve a problem like this, it'd reformat table first so I get one column with dates and the other with numbers.
In this case, formula to form date column would be:
=INDIRECT(ADDRESS((INT((ROW()-4)/COUNT($B$4:$H$4))+1)*2+2;MOD(ROW()-4;COUNT($B$4:$H$4))+2;4;1))
and numbers would be the same formula with sight adjustment (+3 instead of +2 at the end of first argument):
=INDIRECT(ADDRESS((INT((ROW()-4)/COUNT($B$4:$H$4))+1)*2+3;MOD(ROW()-4;COUNT($B$4:$H$4))+2;4;1))
And now you got two columns that you can safely use for searching!
Oops, sorry, you actually mentioned that it doesn't work if number=date! I missed that part 🙁
={OFFSET(A1,SUM((B4:H14=L5)*ROW((B4:H14))),SUM((B4:H14=L5)*COLUMN((B4:H14)))-1)}
Works for all data... the solution I got for indirect looks little lengthy
I want to count last 20 records of a person, whose marks is greater than 2 and grade "manager". ....
Assume A1 has got names (James, John...etc...)
A2 "Manager"
A3 "2"
Someone please reply
I want to count last 20 records of a person, whose marks is greater than "2" and grade "Manager"
Assume A1 "geroge" A2 "Michael" A3 "George" etc...name can found anywhere in the rows
B1 "Manager" B2" clerk"
C1 "2" C2, "4"
please reply
Simplest I can come up with. No limitations for either 1 or 2. This does assume dates are an ordered list with 7 per row, and 2 rows per set. Assuming this is always true this will work for an arbitrary long list of dates.
=OFFSET(B5,QUOTIENT($L$5-$B$4,7)*2,MOD($L$5-$B$4,7))
@Marc,
Nice approach - however, as there are no "Negative Dates" - try:
=OFFSET(B5,INT(L5-B4)/7)*2,MOD(L5-B4,7))
——————————————————————————-
Michael (Micky) Avidan
“Microsoft® Answer” – Wiki author & Forums Moderator
“Microsoft®” MVP – Excel (2009-2015)
ISRAEL
=OFFSET(B4,ROUNDUP((L5-41911+1)/7,0)*2-1,MOD(L5-41911,7))
B4 has been used as reference cell for OFFSET().
FOR ROWS:
ROUNDUP(....,0) gives the integer value of a division. In case of presence of a remainder, ROUNDUP will add 1 to the Quotient.
As opposed to ROUNDUP(), the INT() or QUOTIENT() functions eliminate the remainder.
41911 = 01-Sept-2014, the first date in the data.
*2 has been used because there are 2 columns per set of data.
/7 has been used because there are 7 columns per set of data.
For columns
MOD(L5-41911,7))
Vijaykumar Shetye,
Panaji, Goa, India
This is how i did it
{=INDEX(B4:H15, MAX((L5=B4:H15)*ROW(B4:H15))-2, MAX((L5=B4:H15)*COLUMN(B4:H15))-1 )}
Here's my solution:
=INDEX(B4:H15,MATCH(1,MMULT(--(B4:H15=L5),TRANSPOSE(COLUMN(B4:H15)^0)),0)+1,MATCH(1,MMULT(TRANSPOSE(--(B4:H15=L5)),ROW(B4:H15)^0),0))
Sorry, forgot to mention Ctrl Shift Enter is needed.