Interactive Decision Tree Visualization in Excel [Trump vs. Hillary in Swing States]

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It is election time in USA, and that means there is a whole lot of drama, discussions and of course data analysis. There are tons of cool visualizations published on all the data. Previously, we talked about “How Trump happened” chart.

Today let’s take a look at the beautiful decision tree chart by NY Times explaining what would happen if each of the 10 swing states vote for Democrats or Republicans. Go ahead and look at that chart. And when you are done playing with it, come back.

decision-tree-trump-hillary-nytimes

My first thought after looking at the chart is: Wow, that is cool. I wonder how we can recreate that experience in Excel?

But as you can guess, making a dynamic tree visualization in Excel is pretty hard. You can create a bubble chart mixed with XY chart to show all the nodes of the decision tree, but as this tree has 2^10 nodes at the bottom level (and 2^11-1 total nodes) our chart would look very clumsy and busy.

So, instead of replicating NY Times chart, why not make our own version that explains the data? You can reuse this idea when visualizing outcomes of several what-if scenarios.

Demo of interactive decision tree chart in Excel

First, take a look at our Trump vs Hillary chart.

interactive-decision-tree-visualization

How to create a decision tree visualization in Excel – Tutorial

 

1. Arrange decision and outcome data

In a table (or range) list various decision and outcome combinations. For our case of Trump vs. Hillary in 10 swing states, there will be 2^10 outcomes (1024). Arrange this data in a format like below.

raw-data-decision-tree

2. Calculate the outcome

Based on each of the decision combinations, calculate the outcome and add it as a column to your table. Alternatively, you can also type or import the outcome data (along with decision combinations)

3. Create a pivot table from your data

Since we are going to use slicers for user interaction, we need to create a pivot table from all this data.

Add all the decision variables and outcome to row labels area. Rearrange the pivot in tabular layout. Disable sub-totals and grand totals.

pivot-table-settings-decision-tree

4. Add slicers

Go to Insert > slicer and select all the decision parameters. In our case, we will pick all the 10 state names.

Once all the slicers are inserted, format them.

  • Set up slicer labels in multiple columns
  • Adjust their size
  • Apply a custom style if you prefer.
  • Keep the headers on the slicers for now. We will remove them at a later stage.

Related: Comprehensive guide to slicers – what, how, where, when and why

5. Calculate % of outcomes for each candidate

Now that we have slicers, whenever you make a selection, the pivot table will be filtered. Calculate number of outcomes favoring each candidate and use that to make a stacked bar chart.

stacked-bar-chart-decision-outcomes

6. Add bells & whistles

You can add a few bells and whistles to this pretty slicer controlled stacked bar chart even prettier.

  • Add messages that display %s (or confidence levels etc.) for each outcome.
  • Display the outcome once it is certain (a la head shot of Hillary or Trump)

Related: Display shapes & images in Excel charts

So there you go. Your interactive decision tree visualization is ready.

Oh, last but not least – resetting all slicers

This is the only place we need to open the hood of Excel and mess with internal wiring. Just add a simple macro to reset all slicers in the workbook. Then assign this macro to a text box with the text “Reset all” on it.


Sub resetSlicers()
    'Reset all slicers
    
    Dim sC As SlicerCache
    
    For Each sC In ActiveWorkbook.SlicerCaches
        sC.ClearManualFilter
    Next sC
    
End Sub

Download decision tree visualization workbook

Click here to download decision tree visualization example workbookPlay with the slicers to find outcome of 2016 US election. Copy the ideas to your model / dashboard to showcase outcomes based on user inputs.

Note: this workbook has VBA. Enable macros to enjoy the reset button.

How do you visualize decision trees

As I said earlier, making decision trees in Excel is tricky if not hard. If you have Power BI, you can use R scripts to make a decision tree. But if you are stuck with Excel, creating a dynamic tree like structure is tricky. That is why, I went with the stacked bar chart approach.

What about you? How would you visualize various scenarios and outcomes in Excel? Please share your thoughts and implementations in the comments section.

Want more? Check out these awesome Excel charts

Here are few more inspiring Excel charts for you.

 

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24 Responses

  1. I’d suggest simply using the subtotal function and filtering the data using the Win/Loss column.  You get the same results and the formula is more comprehensible.

    1. @John

      That is one option.

      There are times however when you want to see the whole data table or a filtered subset and still want to produce summary reports against an unfiltered field.

  2. Is there a particular reason why you are using a comma and the unary (–) operator for the second array in the SUMPRODUCT formula?  It seems to work the same if you were to string the arrays together using the asterisk (*).  The advantage is that SUMPRODUCT treats the entire string of arrays as a single array.

  3. Is there a way to do this on a large set of data? As in ~100,000 rows? When I try I get an error because the formula becomes too long. It says the max length of a formula is 8,192 characters. Excel 2010.

  4. How do I incorporate a specific text within a cell for the second array. For instance, – -(C7:C13=”Apple”)
    when I chose a specific text the formula does not work.

    1. @RB

      I am not sure what is the issue as if I use the sample data in the post the following work fine

      Count:
      =SUMPRODUCT(SUBTOTAL(3,OFFSET(C7:C13,ROW(C7:C13)-MIN(ROW(C7:C13)),,1)), –(C7:C13=”L”))
      Sum:
      =SUMPRODUCT(SUBTOTAL(3,OFFSET(C7:C13,ROW(C7:C13)-MIN(ROW(C7:C13)),,1)),(C7:C13=”L”)*(D7:D13))

      You may want to check that there are no leading or trailing spaces in your list of Apples

      1. I should have given a better explanation. Heres my situation. I have a column with cells filled with names like Column 1, Column 2, Pier 1, Pier 2, etc. If the cell just contained Pier and searched for that it works. But because it has other characters in the cell its not recognizing the pier. So how can I extract specific characters of a string of text in this formula?

        Hopefully this was a better explanation

  5. Hello-

    This formula works pretty well for me except that it slow down excel and prevents some of my macros from working. I was wondering if there was a way to program this in VBA so that excel isn’t always trying to recalculate it. I would like to use a push of a button to get it to run then paste in a cell.

    Thanks!

  6. I am trying to sum filtered data in a column, but would want to ignore the negative values in the column. How to go about doing this?

      1. The negative values are required for reporting purposes, but their effect on the total is distorting the required output. Please advise.

  7. I have this working for counting and summing, however, I have a list and for the second array, I need a criteria. That is, I’m looking for b13:b200=”01.??.??” or =left((a1,2) or something like that. These types of criteria matches do not appear to work as I get a blank as a result.
    Thanks!

    1. @Bob

      As your formula b13:b200=”01.??.??” looks like you are trying to check the first day of the month of the range
      What about trying Day(B13:B200)=1

  8. Hai Experts,
    i understood this formula well and working fine in MS Excel 2013
    but when the same am trying to place in google Spreadsheet it shows error as
    “SUMPRODUCT has mismatched range sizes. Expected row count: 1. column count: 1. Actual row count: 2014, column count: 1.” and as a result #VALUE! Appears in cell.
    Can anyone please help me how would i get it done in Google Spread sheet
    or is there any other formula as a substitute for this.
    Thank you very much.

    1. @Vivek

      I don’t know

      I just downloaded the file and it is working fine and not showing that error

      Goto the Formulas, Calculation Options Tab and check that Calculation is set to Automatic

      What version of Excel and Windows are you using ?

  9. I know that this forum is for MS Excel, but I am trying to help someone who is working in Google Sheets. The below formula works in Excel but Google Sheets returns:
    “SUMPRODUCT has mismatched range sizes. Expected row count: 1. column count: 1. Actual row count: 39000, column count: 1.” and as a result #VALUE! Appears in cell.
    This is the same problem asked by Srichirin above. Does anyone know if there is a formula for Google Sheets that will replicate what MS Excel does?

    =SUMPRODUCT(SUBTOTAL(3,OFFSET($C$6:$C$39500,ROW($C$6:$C$39500)-MIN(ROW($C$6:$C$39500)),,1)),- -($C$6:$C$39500=H1),($D$6:$D$39500))

  10. Trying to find a SUMPRODUCT formula that counts the word Closed by date for the last 7 days in a filtered list.
    =COUNTIF(M:M,”>”&TODAY()-7) works ok for unfiltered count Column M contains Closure dates (blank if open) and Column L is Status Open or Closed

  11. I used this formula and worked like a charm! But, now I’ve been requested to use it but adding not one but two criteria in the same formula. For instance the sum I was doing added negative and positive numbers. I’ve been asked to use the exact same formula but adding that only positive numbers were considered… any idea on how to do this?

  12. Thank you so much brother literally I have been struggling since morning to get the sum of the filtered category, however, after reading your blog attentively i got my solution, so thanks a lot once again.

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