Yesterday was Halloween. To our readers who are not familiar with it, ‘Halloween is a colorful festival with lots of costumes, scary stories, theme parties and trick-or-treating, celebrated on 31st October, every year.” I have never celebrated Halloween as it is an unknown tradition in India where I live. But that is no excuse. Especially when the celebration calls for colorful clothes, scary themed houses and shrieking kids.
Of course, we are not going to have a traditional Halloween. Because,
- At our house, we use pumpkins to make sambar, not lights
- The only ones with costumes in our house are my kids.
- If I send my kids for trick or treat, they will get neither.
So that brings us to the only part of Halloween that I can celebrate. Telling scary stories.
So lets talk about the stuff that scares us. But bear in mind that I am not interested in that time when you & your cousin went camping and stumbled in to an abandoned log cabin to discover the …Save it for real Halloween.
We want to talk stuff that scares you in Excel of course.
I will go first, Things in Excel that scare me most
- Solver. Although I have used it several times, every time I set up a solver model, I feel uncomfortable. I am not sure if it will give the results I am looking for or something else altogether.
- Broken connections. More than scare, I just feel annoyed when I see these. This is also why I am very skeptical to copy entire worksheets or big ranges between files.
- Array formula usage of FREQUENCY(), N(), MMULT() and TRANSPOSE(): In most of our formula challenge & formula forensic posts, I see a lot of people using these formulas. Most of the times when I try to decode what is happening I feel lost. They are really scary!
- Statistical analysis: This is something I have been fearing since college days. I know good deal about basic probability and statistics. But when it comes to advanced stuff, I always fumble. Good thing I don’t have to use these techniques very often.
Hopefully, I will grow my skills in next year to fear less.
What about you? What areas of Excel scare you most?
Go ahead and tell us your Excel scary stories. What are you afraid of? What makes you snicker? Which Excel features make you feel vulnerable? Go ahead and tell us. Post your stories in comments.
PS: You can also tell us the scary thing that happened to your Excel workbooks or analysis.
PPS: Or about the time you were alone at home and you heard a rustling noise in the closet, only to realize it was a nasty, long and confusing SUMPRODUCT.
15 Responses to “Modeling Interest During Construction (IDC) – Excel Project Finance”
Thanks again for a very helpful post.
I had a similar problem when trying to model a balance sheet and profit and loss projection. The problem was that interest expense (in P&L) was dependent on a cash shortfall (in BS) which had to be funded. The cash shortfall depended on how much interest was paid, so the mutual dependency made a circular reference.
I addressed it with a macro that calculated interest outside of the P&L, then pasted the calculated amount into the P&L as a value. The model was out of balance, but by repeating the pasting and calculating loop the imbalance reduced to zero. It was a bit messy, and had to be repeated every time a line changed - but it worked.
If I have to do it again I'll read this article again first and see if it can be done more elegantly.
Hi,
The use of a circular reference can be avoided in this case. Just make use of the geometric sum to calculate the interest required. I’ll walk through the example from the spreadsheet.
First calculate the cash needed each year without the interest expense. So you year 1 you need 55 Mn, year 2 105 Mn, and 190 Mn for year 3. The total amount to borrow for year 1 is then (50 Mn)/(1-interest_rate) = (50)/(1-0.1). For years 2 and subsequent the amount borrowed is the cash needed in that year plus the interest_rate times the amount already borrowed. For year 2 (105 + interest_rate * sum(previous debt raised))/(1-interest_rate)=(105+0.1*61.1)/(1-0.1).
This process avoids the need for a circular reference, and makes the calculation more stable.
Thanks,
Tristan
The question is for the year 1 in your case, the amount works out to 45 mn. However in the year 2 you have applied the loan amount as 61.1 mn.
Am I missing something ! Please help !
very helpful information!!!
using circular references and to make model more stable we can use combination of "IF" and "ISERROR" functions. i.e
=if(iserror(formula1),"",(formula1))
this formula will return blank value if there is any error otherwise give the result required.
I usually use this in my models and it makes them very stable......
🙂 🙂 🙂
@Terry: Thats right. Exactly same problem is seen in Interest - Cash cycle in P&L and Cash Flow statement as well. In our trainings on financial modeling in excel, we demonstrate using both the circular loops as well as the macros to take care of this problem. Circular loops have their own pitfalls. If the model enters into a state of error, the error percolates!
@Tristan: Thanks for pointing out. I agree with you that if circular loops can be avoided, they should be avoided.
@Yogesh: This is one way of avoiding the problem. Although circular loops have another problem that they make your sheet slower. Each time, there is a change in the sheet, all the calculations are redone. So if they can be avoided, they should be avoided.
Please note that this was an example (a large one indeed) and I didn't have space to speak about the pitfalls of this approach! I just wanted to illustrate an approach and am glad that some of you found it useful!
I think while posting, there is an error in the images! The last image should be flipped with the one that is posted in step VII!
I think you can try the following simple solution given by Microsoft itself to make the circular works:
Windows: Excel Options -> Formulas -> Put a tick on "Enable iterative calculation"
Mac: Excel -> Preference -> Calculation ->Put a tick on "Limit iteration"
You can change the maximum number of calculation iterations as well as the maximum changes which iteration stops for goal seeking or for resolving circular references based on the number you type in the maximum change box.
Thank you.
Hey All
I heard that we can take care of the circularity with the help of macro for IDC. Can anybody help on the steps to construct the macro for the same.
Regards
Vinay
Hi Vinay,
If you look closely, you are essentially copying the values from the interest calculation to the IDC in project cost.
Basically you can record a macro, that takes the values from interest and pastes special the values in IDC row in project cost.
Then you can run that recorded code in a for loop.
Hope this helps.
Thanks Param for reply.
But before calculating interest, i need to provide for Upfront Equity and Equity, which are essentially part of total project cost. Hence, i need to put in Upfront Equity and Equity to calculate the IDC which is again hitting the total project cost.
Bit of confused on how to remove this circular reference.
Regards
Vinay
Wow, this was a brilliantly simple post. I was looking online for a while before I found this page. Never seen this been explained so beautifully yet so crisply before. Thanks for saving my ass at work! (i'm relatively new to finance + modeling)
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I have been reading your blog since my college days. Today, I'm writing just to say thanks.
We have calculated Financial Rate of return of a hydropower projects, and the observer has raised an observation regarding Total Project cost with IDC Rs. 8616.01 million (PKR) and with-out IDC 8352.46 million (PKR). How does the Financial nalysis be calculated on the basis of with-out IDC Or With IDC?????
Please helpf. if possible to spare some time.