Ever since we have purchased the Monopoly board game, it has become a weekend ritual for us. Almost every Friday/Saturday night Jo would pull out the board, currency, wooden dice, small houses and deed cards and spread them.
We are in for a surprise after playing the game for few weeks. As kids we thought the game is a GAME, ie random to high extent but fun. But as we develop an eye for the detail, the game does come out to be rather unfair. How else can you explain that one of us is paying rents through their noses to the other one owning reds and oranges and how else can you explain that the one who purchased properties next to GO seldom gets a visitor, including themselves. We started questioning, is monopoly fair? And thats where I set out to find it myself.
For starters, The monopoly board has 40 cells, and every player starts at GO. The moves are decided by sum of the faces on a 2 dice throw. If you get a double you get to throw again.
I have tried to simulate the game using excel. I have observed all the rules like community chest / chance cards, Jail and go to jail. But I have not observed doubles rule for I thought it had little impact on the outcome. I wanted to see if the expected probabilities of each cell (which is 1/40 or 2.5%) are close to the actual probabilities.
When I ran the simulation for 10000 dice throws for 4 players, the absolute difference between expected probabilities of each cell, color group are more or less near to the actual probabilities as you can see in the below charts. (click on them for bigger versions)
The maximum deviation is to the tune of 6% for individual cells and 1.93% for a color group (for there will be cancellations in color groups, as one cell gets more visitors the other would get less)
But that is not we experience when we play the game. We end up landing in Jail or a chance an awful lot of times more than we expect to land there. Thats because, no one ever plays a 10000 throw per person game, not in day to day versions. Its more like 200-400 throws. So when I ran the same experiment for 200 turns for 4 players, the results were more interesting as you can see them below.
As you can see the deviation in the actual probability and expected probability is huge. Some times 60% more for individual cells and 20% for color groups. This I guess explains the reason behind the Monopoly game strategies like buy anything in Orange and Red groups etc.
Obviously one fault of this experiment is if you run it again the actual probabilities are going to change in favor of something else. But almost always far from the expected results.
Write to me just in case you want to play around with my monopoly board game simulation excel sheet, I can mail it. The file is rather huge for upload.
Related links: Monopoly Wiki, Monopoly Fun Facts & Strategies, Similar Monopoly Simulations [1, 2]
29 Responses to “You are invited [personal]”
Dear Sir,
This is to just Wish the kids a Happy birthday in Advance.May Almighty bless them all strength,Success
Dear Chandoo,
My best wishes to your child.I had become regular visitor of your site and finally today it made me to post a comment...
Best wishes from my end! Dont think it would be possible to personally come .. but my best wishes would always be there!! 🙂
Chandoo, thank you for the kind invitation. I wish a special birthday day for your daughters, Nishanth & Nakshatra. Will you be serving "dudh pakh"?
-bill
What a kind thought to invite us!
I pray your family will be continually blessed.
Thank you very much for the invitation, how I wish Philippines is just a Jeepney ride away from India. Best wishes for your baby girls and more blessings to come.
Hi Chandoo,
Thanks for the invitation ! You treat everyone that comes to your site as part of your family community. Me and my family wishes Nishanth & Nakshatra a very very happy birthday !!
Though physically we cant be with you to celebrate the occasion, you know our blessing are with you !
To be a father is not easy, furthermore you have to be a father to 2 kids !
Francis
Dad of 2 and 9 year old.
Hi Chandoo,
It was very kind of you to invite us all along to the 'Extravaganza'. Like others that have commented here I too, am to far (Australia) to pop over for a piece of cake 🙂 Best wishes to you and your family on such a milestone.
Emma
(soon to be mum of 1!!!)
Dear Chandoo
God bless Nishanth & Nakshatra. Wishing you and your family a very enjoyable first birthday party.
(Father of a 9 month baby... wondering how you manage 2 !!! )
God bless the little ones. Have a blast.
Hi Chandoo
Happy birthday !
Indeed children are a blessing and make our lives much more deeper.
Wow! I wonder how that would look; all those Excel users partying with your cute kids!
Enjoy the festivities and remember; they grow up really fast.
Dear Chandoo,
Thanks for your invitation!
Please accept my wishes for Nishanth & Nakshatra, and a very very happy birthday to both of them.
(Father of a 1 year old baby)
Hi Chandoo,
Thanks for the invitation. Wishing Nishanth and Nakshatra a very happy birthday and God bless all of you!
Howdy Chandoo,
Gosh, would love to attend the birthday party for your little blessings but I live in Dallas, TX. The children are beautiful. Thank you so much for the Excel information, tips, hints, special formulas, etc., you and your children are really a blessing. I look forward to your e-mails and check your web site frequently. Regards, Lynn
Chandoo Garu,
Your kids look adorable. Congratulations. My Aashirwaadam to both of them.
Regards,
Kalyan Verma
@all: Thank you every one for the wishes, blessings and prayers. We are very excited and busy with the birthday preps now. I will share a pic or two when its over... 🙂
Wish you and your entire family all the blessings. May god provide your babies with all the love and charm in the entire universe.
Like Emma I am rather far away (South Africa), but best wishes to you and your family on this special occasion.
(Mother of 7 and grandmother of 5)
Dear Chandoo,
May God Bless your little ones with Good Health... Happy birthday to them from me... Wish i could be there but work doesn't permit me to travel 🙁
And thanks again for treating all of us like your family
Rajatha
Sir.
God bless the two little angels with all the happiness in the world.....
Wishing Nishanth and Nakshatra a very happy first birthday. My youngest has just turned 18, and I wish you and your family every happiness in the exciting journey ahead.
Hi Chandoo,
I'm reading your blog for more than a year now, and i'm very pleased by this invitation.
I wish a very special Happy Birthday to the 2 little ones from Mauritius Island.
If, for any reason, you are coming on the island in the future, feel free to drop me a mail.
Have a nice party, and a nice year to come with Nishanth and Nakshatra.
Happy birthday!
Your babies are beautiful!
This year is not possible for us to attend. My family will be there for your next family party.
Enjoy the cake and dinner
May God Bless your little ones with Good Health… Happy birthday to them from me....I am also the father my little daughter named akanksha, she is 2.5 yrs old,,,,but i am unemployed 2 yrs ,,i know when u become a dad u r many hopes.
Guru
My belated wishes for your kids... I feel sorry for having missed them to wish to the right time.... May almighty shower all his blessings on your family.....
With regards
Chandoo,
Congratulations. Please give you children a big Happy Birthday (one day late) from me. Enjoy, they grow up very fast
Gene
@all.. thanks for the wishes and blessings. We had a fantastic weekend with all the relatives, friends. Kids loved the cake, enjoyed the beach and had fun playing with gifts. Here are some photos..
Chandoo & family - greetings from Ireland, hope you enjoyed the day!