Options other than the inbuilt trend types for forecasting

[Johnny C]

Hi
I'm trying to forecast payments across a large number of accounts. None of the inbuilt trend types come close to what are clearly consistent curves. I've tried all the ones here (upto 6th order polynomials) and nothing gets an r2 of >30%.

Are there any websites or resources that look at more advanced mapping of curves?

Cheers

 

[Chihiro]

Try searching "Drift Method" and "Seasonal Naïve Method".

Typically, you'd need to combine few method and come up with custom forecasting method, above are usually used to validate your method (i.e. if one of simple method does better job of forecast, developed method is not worth it).

 

[Hui]

Johnny,

Any chance of sharing the data?