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Product Launch curve or adoption curve

naina

New Member
Hello- Can anyone please help me on how I can create an adoption curve in excel.

If I have the following information available
1.Product Launch Share : 12% ( i.e Y1 12%)
2. Product peak share: 25% (i.e this is the highest share of the product and when we reach at this stage we remain at this stage)
3. years to peak: 5 years

S0, Y1: 12%, Y2: ? , Y3:? Y4: ? Y5: 25%, y6: 25%., Y7: 25%

I tried using the fisher-pry method but there the formula is only calculating the 50% adoption share.

Can anyone please assist? Excel example attached

Thanks
Naina
 

Attachments

  • adoption curve.xlsx
    9.1 KB · Views: 7
The attached is a pure guess.
I don't know what I'm doing.
I played around with the factors in the fisher-pry formula (using solver) until it came out looking right.
I'm unlikely to be able to answer further questions on this because, well, I don't know what I'm doing.
76595
 

Attachments

  • Chandoo47006adoption curve.xlsx
    15.7 KB · Views: 3
Similarly clueless but rather than using solver, I determined the coefficients from the on-sheet data.
Code:
= Peak/(1+Peak*EXP(-(LN(1/launch - t₅₀))*(yr-2)))
or equivalently
= 1 / (1/Peak + (1/launch-t₅₀)^(2-yr))
 

Attachments

  • Chandoo47006adoption curve.xlsx
    16.8 KB · Views: 7
The attached is a pure guess.
I don't know what I'm doing.
I played around with the factors in the fisher-pry formula (using solver) until it came out looking right.
I'm unlikely to be able to answer further questions on this because, well, I don't know what I'm doing.
View attachment 76595
thanks a lot for taking out your time to work on this. I greatly appreciate
 
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